TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088285
Played Sep 7Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118119611611
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 65–30 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 30 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:38What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Strowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-30 in 95
Strowski
Wrong
gap of 35 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1830 vs Kapik 1674
Strowski
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 80% vs Kapik 60%
Strowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Kapik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski +3 · Kapik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.57 / Kapik 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Strowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088285
Strowski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 269 of 405
Up 2–0, closes it96% 98 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 182 of 218
Kapik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 208 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski5wins
AwayKapik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski100%5 of 5
AwayKapik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S2Strowski3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Strowski6Kapik4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S4Strowski4Kapik5n = 9Kapik took 5 of 9
S5Strowski3Kapik1n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiKapikS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.341.9−1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime822 / 1403 vs 1120 / 211258.6%53%822 / 1403 vs 1120 / 2112Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.57/Kapik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 7 · 17:20K. Strowski—781181K. Kapik—11116113
WJul 6 · 18:30K. Strowski—127712113K. Kapik—1011111072
WJun 30 · 17:20K. Strowski—117911113K. Kapik—81111472
LJun 23 · 16:30K. Strowski—911491K. Kapik—11411113
LJun 17 · 18:30K. Strowski—571191K. Kapik—11118113
WJun 16 · 19:40K. Strowski—137113113K. Kapik—111161192
LMay 28 · 18:35K. Strowski—125111192K. Kapik—141189113
WMay 26 · 15:30K. Strowski—1211113K. Kapik—10960
LMay 25 · 09:05K. Strowski—1111751K. Kapik—13911113
WMay 21 · 18:15K. Strowski—11715123K. Kapik—81113101
K. Strowski10
WSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332WSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113WSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski1.7471161182K. Glazowski1.94115119113WSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171WSep 7 · 11:45K. Strowski1.471113123K. Wisniewski2.45911100WSep 7 · 10:05K. Strowski1.43119116123M. Sklensky2.60911511102LSep 7 · 09:00K. Strowski2.5091312101K. Wloczko1.44111510123LSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski2.00781181K. Glazowski1.7311117113
K. Kapik10
WSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113WSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070WSep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.2512511113K. Glazowski1.571011661LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101
Upcoming Matches
K. Strowski
Nothing scheduled
K. Kapik2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57K. Kostyk2.25—Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik2.00M. Rutkowski1.73—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik1.57K. Kostyk2.25—Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.30B. Sulkowski3.40—Sep 8 · 15:25K. Kapik—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 16:55K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:05K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——
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