TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087107
Played Sep 6Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012911119811––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:30 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 60.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 10–9 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:30What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1673 vs Pietraszko 1688
Pietraszko
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Pietraszko 80%
Pietraszko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Pietraszko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +1 · Pietraszko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pietraszko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.67 / Pietraszko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kapik)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087107
Kapik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 257 of 412
Up 2–0, closes it97% 131 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it79% 177 of 224
Pietraszko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 98 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik3wins
AwayPietraszko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPietraszko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik25%1 of 4
AwayPietraszko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik4Pietraszko6n = 10Pietraszko took 6 of 10
S2Kapik5Pietraszko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapik3Pietraszko7n = 10Pietraszko took 7 of 10
S4Kapik1Pietraszko7n = 8Pietraszko took 7 of 8
S5Kapik3Pietraszko2n = 5Kapik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikPietraszkoK − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.743.9−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime1116 / 2107 vs 429 / 85153%50.4%1116 / 2107 vs 429 / 851Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.67/Pietraszko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 22:10K. Kapik—11111011113L. Pietraszko—13712882
LAug 12 · 18:50K. Kapik—10990L. Pietraszko—1211113
LJul 29 · 19:40K. Kapik—113891L. Pietraszko—91111113
LJul 23 · 15:45K. Kapik—111181092L. Pietraszko—661112113
LJul 20 · 16:30K. Kapik—1113261L. Pietraszko—61511113
WJul 15 · 23:35K. Kapik—1111718123L. Pietraszko—491120102
LJul 15 · 21:20K. Kapik—1081171L. Pietraszko—12117113
LJul 5 · 20:05K. Kapik—511115102L. Pietraszko—118911123
LJul 1 · 23:35K. Kapik—85100L. Pietraszko—1111123
WJul 1 · 21:20K. Kapik—1411125113L. Pietraszko—167101122
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182WSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.6111411882K. Kapik2.20911811113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143WSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132WSep 2 · 22:35M. Rutkowski1.449111181L. Pietraszko2.6311137113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——
L. Pietraszko
Nothing scheduled
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