TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088283
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71114124111311118
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 73–62 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 62 of their 135 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kapik beat Rutkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-62 in 135
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 11 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1677 vs Kapik 1695
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kapik 100%
Kapik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kapik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +3 · Kapik +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.73 / Kapik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13088283
Rutkowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it89% 302 of 339
Kapik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 208 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski7wins
AwayKapik3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKapik37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski2Kapik8n = 10Kapik took 8 of 10
S2Rutkowski8Kapik2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S3Rutkowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Rutkowski5Kapik3n = 8Rutkowski took 5 of 8
S5Rutkowski4Kapik1n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKapikR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.4+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime770 / 1374 vs 1121 / 211256%53.1%770 / 1374 vs 1121 / 2112Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.73/Kapik 2.00
Hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 1 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—911951K. Kapik—11511113
WJul 1 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—711611113K. Kapik—11711992
WJun 30 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—913812123K. Kapik—11111110102
WJun 29 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—81111133K. Kapik—1154111
WJun 29 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—1111410113K. Kapik—78111282
LJun 25 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—12670K. Kapik—1411113
LJun 25 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—771111112K. Kapik—111183133
WJun 25 · 18:05M. Rutkowski—1012114113K. Kapik—121081192
WJun 23 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—101111113K. Kapik—124981
WJun 23 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—1114113K. Kapik—51270
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113WSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski3 of 4 neutral
K. Kapik4 of 4 neutral
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