TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088282
Played Sep 7Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113911––––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 6–4 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kapik beat Staszczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Staszczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1574 vs Kapik 1702
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 40% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 40% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +1 · Kapik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.91 / Kapik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13088282
Staszczyk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 28 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Kapik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 258 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it97% 132 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaszczyk6wins
AwayKapik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayKapik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk7Kapik3n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S2Staszczyk6Kapik4n = 10Staszczyk took 6 of 10
S3Staszczyk4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S4Staszczyk3Kapik2n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaszczykKapikS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.233.3+3.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 311 vs 1122 / 211256.6%53.1%176 / 311 vs 1122 / 2112Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikStaszczyk 1.91/Kapik 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 19:40K. Staszczyk—91160K. Kapik—1113113
WJul 16 · 01:10K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kapik—2890
WJul 15 · 22:50K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kapik—7680
WJun 8 · 01:10K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kapik—8950
WJun 7 · 22:45K. Staszczyk—11119113K. Kapik—721181
LMay 18 · 24:45K. Staszczyk—111311822K. Kapik—4111311113
WMay 17 · 22:20K. Staszczyk—11113133K. Kapik—5611111
LMay 11 · 24:20K. Staszczyk—9811101K. Kapik—11115123
WMay 10 · 21:55K. Staszczyk—11101811113K. Kapik—61220392
LMay 10 · 18:40K. Staszczyk—56120K. Kapik—1111143
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123WSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123LAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151WAug 18 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz1.441151091K. Staszczyk2.6351112113
K. Kapik10
WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113LSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102WSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113WSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070WSep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.2512511113K. Glazowski1.571011661LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk3 of 4 neutral
K. Kapik5 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.30B. Sulkowski3.40—Sep 8 · 15:25K. Kapik—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 16:55K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:05K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——
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