TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088281
Played Sep 7Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412911911711––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 84 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 59.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 1–2 Krzysztof Kapik Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kapik beat Kostyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1452 vs Kapik 1702
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 0% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 30% vs Kapik 70%
Kapik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -5 · Kapik +1
Kostyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.63 / Kapik 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Kapik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13088281
Kostyk2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Kapik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 258 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it97% 132 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostyk1wins
AwayKapik2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKapik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk1Kapik2n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
S2Kostyk0Kapik3n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S3Kostyk0Kapik3n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostykKapikKostyk − KapikBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.037.0−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 425 vs 1122 / 211251.1%53.1%217 / 425 vs 1122 / 2112Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKostyk 2.63/Kapik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 27 · 13:25K. Kostyk—7870K. Kapik—1111113
WJun 22 · 24:20K. Kostyk—118711113K. Kapik—91111862
LJun 21 · 22:05K. Kostyk—7580K. Kapik—1111113
K. Kostyk10
WSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102LSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113
K. Kapik10
WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113LSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102WSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113WSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070WSep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.2512511113K. Glazowski1.571011661LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk1 of 9 neutral
Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 21:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 22:35K. Kostyk—K. Staszczyk——Sep 8 · 23:20K. Kostyk—K. Kapik——
K. Kapik5 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.25B. Sulkowski3.75—Sep 8 · 15:25K. Kapik—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 16:55K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:05K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——
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