TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091618
Played Sep 7Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111168111816611
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 18-16
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 105 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 54.3%
105 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 8–7 Konrad Staszczyk Konrad Staszczyk has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kostyk beat Staszczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:39What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1452 vs Staszczyk 1593
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Staszczyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 30% vs Staszczyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -4 · Staszczyk -1
Kostyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.20 / Staszczyk 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091618
Kostyk2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Staszczyk1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 144 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKostyk6wins
AwayStaszczyk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKostyk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayStaszczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk6Staszczyk4n = 10Kostyk took 6 of 10
S2Kostyk3Staszczyk7n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S3Kostyk3Staszczyk7n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S4Kostyk7Staszczyk0n = 7Kostyk took 7 of 7
S5Kostyk3Staszczyk2n = 5Kostyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKostykStaszczykK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.0+2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 425 vs 176 / 31051.1%56.8%217 / 425 vs 176 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykKostyk 2.20/Staszczyk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk—71181862K. Staszczyk—1161116113
WSep 7 · 15:00K. Kostyk—1111133K. Staszczyk—54110
LJul 12 · 16:55K. Kostyk—7960K. Staszczyk—1111113
WJul 12 · 24:10K. Kostyk—451111133K. Staszczyk—111138112
LJul 11 · 21:45K. Kostyk—7790K. Staszczyk—1111113
WJun 14 · 10:05K. Kostyk—11119113K. Staszczyk—691121
WJun 14 · 06:15K. Kostyk—119811123K. Staszczyk—911117102
WJun 14 · 03:45K. Kostyk—1110711113K. Staszczyk—41211832
LJun 13 · 09:00K. Kostyk—12681182K. Staszczyk—1011114113
WJun 13 · 06:15K. Kostyk—11912113K. Staszczyk—6111071
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102LSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980LSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113LSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123LAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151WAug 18 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz1.441151091K. Staszczyk2.6351112113LAug 18 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.331311113K. Staszczyk1.5111880
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K. Staszczyk1 of 5 neutral
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