TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092299
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111810121513611
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 106 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 7–10 Konrad Staszczyk Mateusz Rutkowski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Rutkowski beat Staszczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:32What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Staszczyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1700 vs Staszczyk 1583
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 100% vs Staszczyk 60%
Rutkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 70% vs Staszczyk 40%
Rutkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +5 · Staszczyk +1
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 2.00 / Staszczyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13092299
Rutkowski2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back22% 47 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Staszczyk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 144 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski4wins
AwayStaszczyk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayStaszczyk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski6Staszczyk4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Staszczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski6Staszczyk4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Rutkowski2Staszczyk4n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiStaszczykR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.7+1.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime772 / 1376 vs 177 / 31256.1%56.7%772 / 1376 vs 177 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykRutkowski 2.00/Staszczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 18:30M. Rutkowski—1111591K. Staszczyk—81311113
WAug 8 · 19:40M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Staszczyk—9350
LJul 16 · 18:50M. Rutkowski—10960K. Staszczyk—1211113
LJul 13 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—116881K. Staszczyk—71111113
LJul 12 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—81111792K. Staszczyk—119511113
WJun 8 · 02:20M. Rutkowski—11611113K. Staszczyk—611881
LJun 7 · 23:55M. Rutkowski—1081361K. Staszczyk—121111113
WJun 7 · 01:35M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Staszczyk—5770
LJun 6 · 23:05M. Rutkowski—911141282K. Staszczyk—1181610113
WJun 6 · 17:55M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Staszczyk—6890
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120WSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123LSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113WSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123LAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski4 of 9 neutral
Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 9 · 24:10M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——
K. Staszczyk3 of 4 neutral
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.