TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093447
Played Sep 8Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191012118117––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 4–6 Konrad Staszczyk Krzysztof Kapik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Staszczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1716 vs Staszczyk 1589
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 60% vs Staszczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Staszczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +1 · Staszczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.00 / Staszczyk 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)+7.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13093447
Kapik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 210 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96
Staszczyk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 147 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 106 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik4wins
AwayStaszczyk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik100%3 of 3
AwayStaszczyk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik3Staszczyk7n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S2Kapik4Staszczyk6n = 10Staszczyk took 6 of 10
S3Kapik6Staszczyk4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S4Kapik2Staszczyk3n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikStaszczykK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.337.2−3.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime1123 / 2110 vs 178 / 31453.2%56.7%1123 / 2110 vs 178 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 2.00/Staszczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 19:40K. Kapik—1113113K. Staszczyk—91160
LJul 16 · 01:10K. Kapik—2890K. Staszczyk—1111113
LJul 15 · 22:50K. Kapik—7680K. Staszczyk—1111113
LJun 8 · 01:10K. Kapik—8950K. Staszczyk—1111113
LJun 7 · 22:45K. Kapik—721181K. Staszczyk—11119113
WMay 18 · 24:45K. Kapik—4111311113K. Staszczyk—111311822
LMay 17 · 22:20K. Kapik—5611111K. Staszczyk—11113133
WMay 11 · 24:20K. Kapik—11115123K. Staszczyk—9811101
LMay 10 · 21:55K. Kapik—61220392K. Staszczyk—11101811113
WMay 10 · 18:40K. Kapik—1111143K. Staszczyk—56120
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482WSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123LSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113WSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133
Upcoming Matches
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K. Staszczyk3 of 6 neutral
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