TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093445
Played Sep 8Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111151517114118
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 54.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 8–8 Kamil Kostyk Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1596 vs Kostyk 1424
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 60% vs Kostyk 20%
Staszczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 40% vs Kostyk 20%
Staszczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk -1 · Kostyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.53 / Kostyk 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093445
Staszczyk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 147 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 106 of 128
Kostyk2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaszczyk5wins
AwayKostyk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk75%3 of 4
AwayKostyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk4Kostyk6n = 10Kostyk took 6 of 10
S2Staszczyk7Kostyk3n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S3Staszczyk7Kostyk3n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S4Staszczyk1Kostyk6n = 7Kostyk took 6 of 7
S5Staszczyk3Kostyk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaszczykKostykS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.7−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 315 vs 219 / 43656.8%50.2%179 / 315 vs 219 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.53/Kostyk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk—9111511113K. Kostyk—11517482
WSep 7 · 21:00K. Staszczyk—1161116113K. Kostyk—71181862
LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk—54110K. Kostyk—1111133
WJul 12 · 16:55K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kostyk—7960
LJul 12 · 24:10K. Staszczyk—111138112K. Kostyk—451111133
WJul 11 · 21:45K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kostyk—7790
LJun 14 · 10:05K. Staszczyk—691121K. Kostyk—11119113
LJun 14 · 06:15K. Staszczyk—911117102K. Kostyk—119811123
LJun 14 · 03:45K. Staszczyk—41211832K. Kostyk—1110711113
WJun 13 · 09:00K. Staszczyk—1011114113K. Kostyk—12681182
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123LSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113WSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk3 of 5 neutral
K. Kostyk
Nothing scheduled
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