TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093448
Played Sep 8Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116811111––
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 66 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 4–1 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Rutkowski beat Kostyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1727 vs Kostyk 1452
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 275 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Kostyk 20%
Rutkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 80% vs Kostyk 20%
Rutkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Kostyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.50 / Kostyk 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Rutkowski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093448
Rutkowski1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 378 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 187 of 194
Up 1–0, closes it89% 301 of 338
Kostyk2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRutkowski4wins
AwayKostyk1wins
Rutkowski leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%4 of 4
AwayKostykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski4Kostyk1n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
S2Rutkowski3Kostyk2n = 5Rutkowski took 3 of 5
S3Rutkowski4Kostyk1n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKostykR − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match34.028.4+5.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime777 / 1383 vs 219 / 43356.2%50.6%777 / 1383 vs 219 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.50/Kostyk 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—1112123K. Kostyk—610100
WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski—1111143K. Kostyk—97120
WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Kostyk—9980
LJun 21 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—41280K. Kostyk—1114113
WMay 9 · 17:30M. Rutkowski—11911113K. Kostyk—511911
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113LSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120WSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591LSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113
Upcoming Matches
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