TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093545
Played Sep 8Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189118111214––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 84 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Artur Daniel at 54.8%
84 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 8–5 Mateusz Rutkowski Mateusz Rutkowski has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:34What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Daniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Daniel
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1756 vs Rutkowski 1731
Daniel
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 60% vs Rutkowski 80%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 50% vs Rutkowski 80%
Rutkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel +2 · Rutkowski +3
Rutkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 1.61 / Rutkowski 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Daniel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093545
Daniel1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 206 of 342
Up 2–0, closes it94% 104 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it76% 158 of 208
Rutkowski2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 163 of 374
Down 0–1, comes back22% 47 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel6wins
AwayRutkowski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDaniel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel100%6 of 6
AwayRutkowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel6Rutkowski4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S2Daniel5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Daniel7Rutkowski3n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S4Daniel4Rutkowski2n = 6Daniel took 4 of 6
S5Daniel1Rutkowski2n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielRutkowskiD − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.5+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime779 / 1465 vs 778 / 138453.2%56.2%779 / 1465 vs 778 / 1384Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielDaniel 1.61/Rutkowski 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 25 · 15:45A. Daniel—1211113M. Rutkowski—10770
LJun 11 · 18:35A. Daniel—1012151342M. Rutkowski—12101315113
WApr 29 · 16:40A. Daniel—12811143M. Rutkowski—10119121
WApr 22 · 18:15A. Daniel—113911113M. Rutkowski—81111342
LApr 9 · 17:00A. Daniel—861191M. Rutkowski—11115113
WApr 2 · 16:20A. Daniel—1112113M. Rutkowski—91080
LMar 19 · 17:40A. Daniel—511411102M. Rutkowski—116118123
LMar 12 · 16:55A. Daniel—71090M. Rutkowski—1112113
WMar 1 · 17:25A. Daniel—1111113M. Rutkowski—6690
WFeb 12 · 16:05A. Daniel—12911113M. Rutkowski—1011571
A. Daniel10
WSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361LSep 9 · 17:20A. Daniel2.201341031J. Braun1.61111112113WSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113WSep 9 · 15:25A. Daniel1.2811711113J. Krawczyk3.50611891LSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113LSep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel1.83112661J. Kuzmicz1.8661111113WSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel2.608870T. Spanik1.441111113WSep 9 · 09:00A. Daniel1.5311116113K. Wisniewski2.23261161WSep 8 · 19:40A. Daniel1.61116136113K. Glazowski2.20911111192
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113LSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113LSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113
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