TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099484
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111315911––––
Artur Daniel
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 4–7 Artur Daniel Jakub Chmielowski has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Daniel
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1598 vs Daniel 1748
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 80% vs Daniel 40%
Chmielowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 50% vs Daniel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski -1 · Daniel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 2.50 / Daniel 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Daniel)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13099484
Chmielowski2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 76 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Daniel1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 210 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it94% 104 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it76% 159 of 210
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski3wins
AwayDaniel7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDaniel leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski100%3 of 3
AwayDaniel100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski3Daniel7n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S2Chmielowski3Daniel7n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S3Chmielowski2Daniel8n = 10Daniel took 8 of 10
S4Chmielowski3Daniel3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiDanielC − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.438.5−7.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 723 vs 782 / 147148.8%53.2%353 / 723 vs 782 / 1471Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielChmielowski 2.50/Daniel 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 18 · 13:30J. Chmielowski—711591A. Daniel—11511113
WJun 12 · 06:35J. Chmielowski—1310811113A. Daniel—111211592
WMay 29 · 15:30J. Chmielowski—15118113A. Daniel—1391191
LMay 28 · 16:40J. Chmielowski—5650A. Daniel—1111113
LMay 14 · 15:55J. Chmielowski—6570A. Daniel—1111113
LApr 16 · 20:10J. Chmielowski—81490A. Daniel—1116113
LFeb 19 · 18:00J. Chmielowski—4121131A. Daniel—11147113
LJul 23 · 20:10J. Chmielowski—671131A. Daniel—11119113
WJul 17 · 13:10J. Chmielowski—11119113A. Daniel—781191
LJul 17 · 06:10J. Chmielowski—5780A. Daniel—1111113
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520
A. Daniel10
WSep 9 · 15:25A. Daniel1.2811711113J. Krawczyk3.50611891LSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113LSep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel1.83112661J. Kuzmicz1.8661111113WSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel2.608870T. Spanik1.441111113WSep 9 · 09:00A. Daniel1.5311116113K. Wisniewski2.23261161WSep 8 · 19:40A. Daniel1.61116136113K. Glazowski2.20911111192LSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113LSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.73—Sep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33M. Benes1.20—Sep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.33J. Krawczyk3.25—Sep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.57K. Kapik2.25—Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.66—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—K. Kapik——
A. Daniel
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