TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102333
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611211––––
Josef Braun
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:38 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 48 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Josef Braun at 58.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 1–6 Josef Braun Jakub Chmielowski has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Braun
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1623 vs Braun 1764
Braun
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 100% vs Braun 40%
Chmielowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 50% vs Braun 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +5 · Braun -1
Chmielowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 4.33 / Braun 1.20
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Braun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13102333
Chmielowski4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 76 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Braun1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChmielowski1wins
AwayBraun6wins
Braun leads 6–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBraun100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski1Braun6n = 7Braun took 6 of 7
S2Chmielowski1Braun6n = 7Braun took 6 of 7
S3Chmielowski1Braun6n = 7Braun took 6 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away571%
These 7 meetings
MetricChmielowskiBraunC − BBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match25.134.7−9.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 722 vs 506 / 97048.9%52.2%353 / 722 vs 506 / 970Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunChmielowski 4.33/Braun 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 3 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—4520J. Braun—1111113
LJun 12 · 13:10J. Chmielowski—81080J. Braun—1112113
LJun 12 · 05:00J. Chmielowski—8750J. Braun—1111113
LFeb 20 · 20:00J. Chmielowski—9670J. Braun—1111113
LJan 25 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—27130J. Braun—1111153
WDec 14 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—11811103J. Braun—411961
LDec 14 · 13:00J. Chmielowski—7111071J. Braun—11912113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113
J. Braun10
LSep 9 · 14:15J. Braun1.3586100K. Wisniewski2.801111123WSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.70115281J. Braun2.0081111113LSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123WSep 9 · 09:45J. Braun1.54128611113J. Kuzmicz2.25101111792LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.73—Sep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33M. Benes1.20—Sep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.33J. Krawczyk3.25—Sep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.57K. Kapik2.25—Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.66—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—K. Kapik——
J. Braun
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