TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065662
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Glanowski
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118611311118511
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Glanowski to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Glanowski above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Glanowski at 54.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Glanowski 2–3 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Glanowski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:30What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Glanowski 1518 vs Chmielowski 1558
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Glanowski 40% vs Chmielowski 20%
Glanowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Glanowski 60% vs Chmielowski 40%
Glanowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Glanowski +2 · Chmielowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGlanowski 2.75 / Chmielowski 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Chmielowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13065662
Glanowski2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 171 of 405
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 110
Chmielowski1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it90% 52 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGlanowski2wins
AwayChmielowski3wins
Chmielowski leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGlanowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmielowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Glanowski2Chmielowski3n = 5Chmielowski took 3 of 5
S2Glanowski0Chmielowski5n = 5Chmielowski took 5 of 5
S3Glanowski3Chmielowski2n = 5Glanowski took 3 of 5
S4Glanowski2Chmielowski1n = 3Glanowski took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricGlanowskiChmielowskiG − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match31.834.6−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGlanowskiChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime888 / 1800 vs 349 / 71849.3%48.6%888 / 1800 vs 349 / 718Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiGlanowski 2.75/Chmielowski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 1 · 17:45J. Glanowski—5380J. Chmielowski—1111113
WAug 17 · 15:05J. Glanowski—11912113J. Chmielowski—9111041
WAug 17 · 24:15J. Glanowski—1181293J. Chmielowski—6111041
LAug 16 · 21:50J. Glanowski—8890J. Chmielowski—1111113
LAug 16 · 15:05J. Glanowski—9511101J. Chmielowski—11118123
J. Glanowski10
LSep 4 · 24:10J. Kuzmicz1.221111113J. Glanowski4.007890LSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113LSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113WSep 3 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.45891111102J. Glanowski2.50111188123WSep 3 · 07:15J. Glanowski1.861311114113K. Rudomina1.8015751182LSep 3 · 06:00J. Zochniak1.47119311173J. Glanowski2.45811114152LSep 3 · 04:50M. Minda1.9011811123J. Glanowski1.807119101LSep 3 · 03:20D. Solilo1.731111113J. Glanowski2.004880WSep 2 · 13:55J. Glanowski1.851111113S. Brud1.858890WSep 2 · 12:40J. Glanowski1.83116114133K. Rudomina1.87211311112
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
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