TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065665
Played Sep 3Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61113113111210112
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 90 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Artur Daniel at 54.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 7–4 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:30What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Daniel
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1769 vs Chmielowski 1550
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 219 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 60% vs Chmielowski 40%
Daniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 40% vs Chmielowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel +2 · Chmielowski -3
Chmielowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 1.53 / Chmielowski 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Daniel)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13065665
Daniel1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 205 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it95% 105 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it77% 158 of 205
Chmielowski2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel7wins
AwayChmielowski3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDaniel leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel100%7 of 7
AwayChmielowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel7Chmielowski3n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S2Daniel7Chmielowski3n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S3Daniel8Chmielowski2n = 10Daniel took 8 of 10
S4Daniel3Chmielowski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielChmielowskiD − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.531.4+7.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1465 vs 348 / 71553.3%48.7%781 / 1465 vs 348 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielDaniel 1.53/Chmielowski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 18 · 13:30A. Daniel—11511113J. Chmielowski—711591
LJun 12 · 06:35A. Daniel—111211592J. Chmielowski—1310811113
LMay 29 · 15:30A. Daniel—1391191J. Chmielowski—15118113
WMay 28 · 16:40A. Daniel—1111113J. Chmielowski—5650
WMay 14 · 15:55A. Daniel—1111113J. Chmielowski—6570
WApr 16 · 20:10A. Daniel—1116113J. Chmielowski—81490
WFeb 19 · 18:00A. Daniel—11147113J. Chmielowski—4121131
WJul 23 · 20:10A. Daniel—11119113J. Chmielowski—671131
LJul 17 · 13:10A. Daniel—781191J. Chmielowski—11119113
WJul 17 · 06:10A. Daniel—1111113J. Chmielowski—5780
A. Daniel10
WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591WSep 4 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80711911113K. Wloczko1.9011911682LSep 4 · 10:05A. Daniel1.3711911982J. Zochniak2.75611911113LSep 4 · 09:00A. Daniel1.42114711112K. Wisniewski2.60311119133
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
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