TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065659
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Kuzmicz
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118611117811
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 5–7 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Kuzmicz has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kuzmicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1830 vs Chmielowski 1606
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 224 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 100% vs Chmielowski 80%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 80% vs Chmielowski 50%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz +5 · Chmielowski +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 1.61 / Chmielowski 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065659
Kuzmicz1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 420 of 688
Up 2–0, closes it98% 170 of 174
Up 1–0, closes it81% 289 of 359
Chmielowski2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmicz5wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz66.7%2 of 3
AwayChmielowski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz3Chmielowski7n = 10Chmielowski took 7 of 10
S2Kuzmicz5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kuzmicz5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Kuzmicz6Chmielowski4n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S5Kuzmicz3Chmielowski2n = 5Kuzmicz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmiczChmielowskiK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.443.8−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime648 / 1126 vs 352 / 72157.6%48.8%648 / 1126 vs 352 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKuzmicz 1.61/Chmielowski 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 20 · 13:50J. Kuzmicz—1169121J. Chmielowski—51111143
LJun 27 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz—811591J. Chmielowski—11411113
WJun 26 · 10:30J. Kuzmicz—711511133J. Chmielowski—116114112
WJun 25 · 13:25J. Kuzmicz—19111115123J. Chmielowski—2113813102
LJun 25 · 06:50J. Kuzmicz—351181J. Chmielowski—11118113
LJun 25 · 04:25J. Kuzmicz—811711102J. Chmielowski—119115123
WJun 11 · 05:20J. Kuzmicz—11117113J. Chmielowski—891171
LMar 27 · 08:55J. Kuzmicz—48111252J. Chmielowski—1111610113
WFeb 20 · 16:05J. Kuzmicz—1012117113J. Chmielowski—121061182
WFeb 20 · 02:05J. Kuzmicz—111011113J. Chmielowski—912651
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
Upcoming Matches
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J. Chmielowski
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