TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13072247
Played Sep 4Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116115411911911
Tomasz Filbrandt
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Tomasz Filbrandt below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Artur Daniel at 54.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 14–8 Tomasz Filbrandt Tomasz Filbrandt has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Daniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Daniel
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1793 vs Filbrandt 1605
Daniel
Wrong
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 80% vs Filbrandt 20%
Daniel
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 60% vs Filbrandt 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel -1 · Filbrandt +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 1.33 / Filbrandt 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Daniel)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13072247
Daniel1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 202 of 334
Up 2–0, closes it95% 104 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it77% 156 of 202
Filbrandt3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 58 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel6wins
AwayFilbrandt4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDaniel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel66.7%4 of 6
AwayFilbrandt50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel6Filbrandt4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S2Daniel5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S3Daniel7Filbrandt3n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S4Daniel4Filbrandt3n = 7Daniel took 4 of 7
S5Daniel1Filbrandt2n = 3Filbrandt took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielFilbrandtD − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.5−0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1463 vs 675 / 126153.3%53.5%780 / 1463 vs 675 / 1261Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielDaniel 1.33/Filbrandt 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.1%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WFeb 25 · 16:55A. Daniel—11611103T. Filbrandt—811691
LDec 18 · 20:25A. Daniel—3580T. Filbrandt—1111113
LDec 9 · 16:30A. Daniel—118451T. Filbrandt—71111103
WDec 4 · 16:30A. Daniel—1111123T. Filbrandt—77100
WNov 26 · 17:20A. Daniel—11614113T. Filbrandt—6111291
LNov 20 · 17:40A. Daniel—11411972T. Filbrandt—411911113
WOct 30 · 21:35A. Daniel—312116113T. Filbrandt—111071162
WOct 23 · 20:10A. Daniel—111113113T. Filbrandt—1391171
LOct 15 · 15:30A. Daniel—131181162T. Filbrandt—158116113
WSep 24 · 17:25A. Daniel—1211113T. Filbrandt—10780
A. Daniel10
WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591WSep 4 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80711911113K. Wloczko1.9011911682LSep 4 · 10:05A. Daniel1.3711911982J. Zochniak2.75611911113LSep 4 · 09:00A. Daniel1.42114711112K. Wisniewski2.60311119133LSep 3 · 19:40J. Braun1.731311113A. Daniel2.0011750
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113LSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192
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