TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093649
Played Sep 8Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196111311611119
Kacper Glazowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Kacper Glazowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Artur Daniel at 56.8%
98 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 36–25 Kacper Glazowski Kacper Glazowski has won 25 of their 61 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Glazowski beat Daniel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-25 in 61
Daniel
Correct
gap of 11 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1745 vs Glazowski 1737
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 40% vs Glazowski 60%
Glazowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 50% vs Glazowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel -2 · Glazowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Glazowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 1.61 / Glazowski 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Daniel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093649
Daniel1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 206 of 342
Up 2–0, closes it94% 104 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it76% 158 of 208
Glazowski2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 82 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel6wins
AwayGlazowski4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDaniel leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel85.7%6 of 7
AwayGlazowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel7Glazowski3n = 10Daniel took 7 of 10
S2Daniel5Glazowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Daniel6Glazowski4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S4Daniel2Glazowski4n = 6Glazowski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielGlazowskiD − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.035.0+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielGlazowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime778 / 1464 vs 497 / 101453.1%49%778 / 1464 vs 497 / 1014Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielDaniel 1.61/Glazowski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 14:35A. Daniel—128581K. Glazowski—101111113
LAug 5 · 09:45A. Daniel—9101361K. Glazowski—111211113
WAug 5 · 07:20A. Daniel—11118133K. Glazowski—5611111
WJul 1 · 10:55A. Daniel—1116133K. Glazowski—414110
WMay 21 · 14:45A. Daniel—1111113K. Glazowski—8990
WApr 22 · 14:45A. Daniel—11911113K. Glazowski—411891
LApr 22 · 03:55A. Daniel—37100K. Glazowski—1111123
WMar 19 · 10:55A. Daniel—1191110113K. Glazowski—81171272
WDec 4 · 14:35A. Daniel—1111113K. Glazowski—5790
LNov 26 · 18:25A. Daniel—911971K. Glazowski—11911113
A. Daniel10
LSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113LSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113WSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452LSep 8 · 14:35K. Glazowski1.86101111113A. Daniel1.80128581WSep 8 · 13:25A. Daniel1.5441111113K. Wisniewski2.22116761LSep 8 · 12:10M. Sklensky1.811211113A. Daniel1.8310970WSep 8 · 10:55J. Kuzmicz1.9011711792A. Daniel1.76911711113LSep 8 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz2.101151211113A. Daniel1.6041114842WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592
K. Glazowski10
WSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:45L. Pietraszko3.0021140K. Glazowski1.361113113WSep 8 · 14:35K. Glazowski1.86101111113A. Daniel1.80128581WSep 8 · 13:00K. Glazowski1.90101111123M. Sklensky1.741279101WSep 8 · 11:45K. Glazowski1.8311119113J. Kuzmicz1.83881181WSep 8 · 10:05K. Glazowski1.5711811113G. Poliniewicz2.16611991LSep 8 · 09:00K. Glazowski1.5511713582K. Wisniewski2.205111111113LSep 7 · 19:40K. Strowski1.911251012113K. Glazowski1.801011121082
Upcoming Matches
A. Daniel5 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 09:00A. Daniel—K. Wisniewski——Sep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel—T. Spanik——Sep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel—J. Braun——Sep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel—M. Benes——Sep 9 · 15:25A. Daniel—J. Krawczyk——Sep 9 · 16:05A. Daniel—J. Chmielowski——Sep 9 · 17:20A. Daniel—J. Braun——Sep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel—M. Olbrycht——Sep 9 · 19:40A. Daniel—M. Benes——
K. Glazowski
Nothing scheduled
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