TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091621
Played Sep 7Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121051110121210118
Kacper Glazowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Glazowski to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Kacper Glazowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Kacper Glazowski at 56.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 33–28 Kacper Glazowski Kacper Glazowski has won 28 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Glazowski beat Strowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Glazowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-28 in 61
Strowski
Correct
gap of 5 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1822 vs Glazowski 1705
Strowski
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Glazowski 40%
Strowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Glazowski 30%
Strowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -1 · Glazowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Glazowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.91 / Glazowski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strowski)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13091621
Strowski1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 76 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back26% 30 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Glazowski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 134 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it98% 61 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it82% 112 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski5wins
AwayGlazowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowskin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayGlazowski50%5 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski0Glazowski10n = 10Glazowski took 10 of 10
S2Strowski6Glazowski4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S3Strowski6Glazowski4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S4Strowski7Glazowski2n = 9Strowski took 7 of 9
S5Strowski2Glazowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiGlazowskiS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match43.043.2−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiGlazowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime823 / 1405 vs 491 / 100558.6%48.9%823 / 1405 vs 491 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.91/Glazowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski—71161182K. Glazowski—115119113
LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski—781181K. Glazowski—11117113
WSep 1 · 13:20K. Strowski—111311183K. Glazowski—13119161
WAug 31 · 19:40K. Strowski—81111143K. Glazowski—1198121
WAug 25 · 17:20K. Strowski—81112123K. Glazowski—11410101
LAug 24 · 18:50K. Strowski—89111372K. Glazowski—1111911113
LAug 24 · 10:05K. Strowski—881171K. Glazowski—11119113
WAug 10 · 18:30K. Strowski—7111811113K. Glazowski—11820572
WJun 16 · 09:00K. Strowski—511711123K. Glazowski—114114102
LMay 26 · 09:30K. Strowski—11970K. Glazowski—1311113
K. Strowski10
LSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332WSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113WSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski1.7471161182K. Glazowski1.94115119113WSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171WSep 7 · 11:45K. Strowski1.471113123K. Wisniewski2.45911100WSep 7 · 10:05K. Strowski1.43119116123M. Sklensky2.60911511102LSep 7 · 09:00K. Strowski2.5091312101K. Wloczko1.44111510123LSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113
K. Glazowski10
LSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113WSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541LSep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.2512511113K. Glazowski1.571011661WSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski1.7471161182K. Glazowski1.94115119113LSep 7 · 13:25K. Glazowski2.406980K. Wloczko1.501111113LSep 7 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.1011138113K. Glazowski1.657111181WSep 7 · 10:55K. Wisniewski2.759811101K. Glazowski1.4011118123LSep 7 · 09:20M. Sklensky2.301371110123K. Glazowski1.531111712102LSep 1 · 20:05K. Glazowski2.20118881M. Sklensky1.6121111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Strowski
Nothing scheduled
K. Glazowski3 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 09:00K. Glazowski—K. Wisniewski——Sep 8 · 10:05K. Glazowski—G. Poliniewicz——Sep 8 · 11:45K. Glazowski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 8 · 13:00K. Glazowski—M. Sklensky——Sep 8 · 14:35K. Glazowski—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 15:45K. Glazowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 18:50K. Glazowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 19:40K. Glazowski—A. Daniel——
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