TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099483
Played Sep 9Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13114111012311––
Josef Braun
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 75 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Josef Braun at 55.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 12–19 Josef Braun Artur Daniel has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Daniel beat Braun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Braun
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1757 vs Braun 1805
Braun
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 60% vs Braun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 50% vs Braun 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel +2 · Braun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 2.20 / Braun 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Braun)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13099483
Daniel2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 81 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Braun1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel4wins
AwayBraun6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel33.3%1 of 3
AwayBraun57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel3Braun7n = 10Braun took 7 of 10
S2Daniel6Braun4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S3Daniel4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Daniel4Braun5n = 9Braun took 5 of 9
S5Daniel2Braun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielBraunD − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.342.2−2.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1472 vs 508 / 97253.2%52.3%783 / 1472 vs 508 / 972Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunDaniel 2.20/Braun 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel—61211123J. Braun—11105101
LSep 3 · 19:40A. Daniel—11750J. Braun—1311113
LSep 3 · 14:35A. Daniel—71171172J. Braun—114118113
WAug 19 · 17:20A. Daniel—12119113J. Braun—1061181
LAug 19 · 09:00A. Daniel—817791J. Braun—111511113
LJul 25 · 12:55A. Daniel—116961J. Braun—81111113
WJul 25 · 04:55A. Daniel—311119113J. Braun—11631192
LJul 16 · 09:00A. Daniel—61111962J. Braun—119711113
LJul 16 · 08:05A. Daniel—138621J. Braun—111111113
WJun 12 · 03:30A. Daniel—991111133J. Braun—111197112
A. Daniel10
WSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113WSep 9 · 15:25A. Daniel1.2811711113J. Krawczyk3.50611891LSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113LSep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel1.83112661J. Kuzmicz1.8661111113WSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel2.608870T. Spanik1.441111113WSep 9 · 09:00A. Daniel1.5311116113K. Wisniewski2.23261161WSep 8 · 19:40A. Daniel1.61116136113K. Glazowski2.20911111192LSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113LSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143
J. Braun10
WSep 9 · 16:30M. Benes1.837118121J. Braun1.8311811143WSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113LSep 9 · 14:15J. Braun1.3586100K. Wisniewski2.801111123WSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.70115281J. Braun2.0081111113LSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123WSep 9 · 09:45J. Braun1.54128611113J. Kuzmicz2.25101111792LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113
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