TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102556
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Benes
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111188111214––
Josef Braun
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Benes to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Benes above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 82 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Michal Benes at 59.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Benes 11–7 Josef Braun Josef Braun has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Benes beat Braun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:20What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Benes
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1886 vs Braun 1789
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Braun 40%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 80% vs Braun 40%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +3 · Braun +1
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.83 / Braun 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13102556
Benes1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Braun1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes7wins
AwayBraun3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%5 of 5
AwayBraun60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Braun5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes6Braun4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Benes6Braun4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes5Braun3n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesBraunBenes − BraunBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.6+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 216 vs 507 / 97151.9%52.2%112 / 216 vs 507 / 971Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.83/Braun 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 10:55M. Benes—11115123J. Braun—6911101
WSep 3 · 17:20M. Benes—11511113J. Braun—611471
LSep 3 · 09:00M. Benes—1361161J. Braun—15115113
LAug 27 · 19:40M. Benes—311671J. Braun—11711113
WAug 27 · 14:35M. Benes—71211113J. Braun—1110861
WAug 13 · 16:05M. Benes—121188113J. Braun—103111162
LAug 13 · 10:50M. Benes—5760J. Braun—1111113
WAug 6 · 18:05M. Benes—101111133J. Braun—1269111
WJun 23 · 11:40M. Benes—1111113J. Braun—6780
WJun 15 · 13:00M. Benes—11611113J. Braun—711861
M. Benes10
WSep 9 · 15:45M. Olbrycht5.005850M. Benes1.141111113WSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113WSep 9 · 13:25M. Benes1.411115113K. Wisniewski2.6061330LSep 9 · 12:10J. Kuzmicz1.88971113113M. Benes1.82111191152WSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123WSep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.54116861M. Benes2.2561111113WSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113WSep 3 · 17:20J. Braun2.10611471M. Benes1.6711511113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Daniel2.5081111113M. Benes1.50119931
J. Braun10
WSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113LSep 9 · 14:15J. Braun1.3586100K. Wisniewski2.801111123WSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.70115281J. Braun2.0081111113LSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123WSep 9 · 09:45J. Braun1.54128611113J. Kuzmicz2.25101111792LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 3 · 17:20J. Braun2.10611471M. Benes1.6711511113
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