TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093541
Played Sep 9Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113711––––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 56.3%
62 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 62–73 Mateusz Rutkowski Krzysztof Kapik has won 62 of their 135 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kapik beat Rutkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:32What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-73 in 135
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 11 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1717 vs Rutkowski 1693
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 80% vs Rutkowski 40%
Kapik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 70% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +3 · Rutkowski -2
Kapik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.00 / Rutkowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13093541
Kapik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 210 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96
Rutkowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 378 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 187 of 194
Up 1–0, closes it89% 301 of 338
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik3wins
AwayRutkowski7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik37.5%3 of 8
AwayRutkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik8Rutkowski2n = 10Kapik took 8 of 10
S2Kapik2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S3Kapik5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapik3Rutkowski5n = 8Rutkowski took 5 of 8
S5Kapik1Rutkowski4n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikRutkowskiK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.442.3−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1122 / 2109 vs 779 / 138753.2%56.2%1122 / 2109 vs 779 / 1387Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiKapik 2.00/Rutkowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 1 · 22:50K. Kapik—11511113M. Rutkowski—911951
LJul 1 · 01:10K. Kapik—11711992M. Rutkowski—711611113
LJun 30 · 22:50K. Kapik—11111110102M. Rutkowski—913812123
LJun 29 · 23:15K. Kapik—1154111M. Rutkowski—81111133
LJun 29 · 21:00K. Kapik—78111282M. Rutkowski—1111410113
WJun 25 · 23:15K. Kapik—1411113M. Rutkowski—12670
WJun 25 · 21:00K. Kapik—111183133M. Rutkowski—771111112
LJun 25 · 18:05K. Kapik—121081192M. Rutkowski—1012114113
LJun 23 · 23:15K. Kapik—124981M. Rutkowski—101111113
LJun 23 · 21:00K. Kapik—51270M. Rutkowski—1114113
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113LSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik3 of 4 neutral
M. Rutkowski2 of 4 neutral
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.