TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093444
Played Sep 8Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116113117––––
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 49 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 4–2 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kostyk beat Kapik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kapik
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1716 vs Kostyk 1417
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 299 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 80% vs Kostyk 20%
Kapik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 70% vs Kostyk 20%
Kapik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +2 · Kostyk -3
Kostyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.44 / Kostyk 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13093444
Kapik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 260 of 413
Up 2–0, closes it97% 131 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 225
Kostyk2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKapik4wins
AwayKostyk2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKapik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKostyk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik2Kostyk4n = 6Kostyk took 4 of 6
S2Kapik5Kostyk1n = 6Kapik took 5 of 6
S3Kapik5Kostyk1n = 6Kapik took 5 of 6
S4Kapik1Kostyk2n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKapikKostykKapik − KostykBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match38.335.0+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime1123 / 2110 vs 219 / 43653.2%50.2%1123 / 2110 vs 219 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.44/Kostyk 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik—8870K. Kostyk—1111113
WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—121111113K. Kostyk—149971
WSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—811119123K. Kostyk—117911102
WJul 27 · 13:25K. Kapik—1111113K. Kostyk—7870
LJun 22 · 24:20K. Kapik—91111862K. Kostyk—118711113
WJun 21 · 22:05K. Kapik—1111113K. Kostyk—7580
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik4 of 4 neutral
K. Kostyk
Nothing scheduled
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