TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059485
Played Sep 3Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117811611––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 30–29 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 29 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:32What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-29 in 59
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1633 vs Olbrycht 1641
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Olbrycht 60%
Olbrycht
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -3 · Olbrycht -1
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.83 / Olbrycht 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13059485
Rutkowski1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Olbrycht1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski6wins
AwayOlbrycht4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%5 of 5
AwayOlbrycht80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski5Olbrycht5n = 10split evenly
S2Rutkowski7Olbrycht3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Rutkowski6Olbrycht4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Rutkowski4Olbrycht2n = 6Rutkowski took 4 of 6
S5Rutkowski1Olbrycht2n = 3Olbrycht took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiOlbrychtR − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.1+1.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime760 / 1355 vs 358 / 76356.1%46.9%760 / 1355 vs 358 / 763Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.83/Olbrycht 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—1211113M. Olbrycht—10760
WJul 28 · 22:10M. Rutkowski—111011113M. Olbrycht—712741
LJul 27 · 21:25M. Rutkowski—91191362M. Olbrycht—1161111113
LJul 18 · 23:35M. Rutkowski—41151652M. Olbrycht—1181114113
WJul 18 · 21:20M. Rutkowski—41112123M. Olbrycht—11610101
WJul 18 · 18:05M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—4790
WJul 18 · 24:45M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—8850
LJul 17 · 22:30M. Rutkowski—8660M. Olbrycht—1111113
WJun 30 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—131568113M. Olbrycht—1113111182
LJun 30 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—931151M. Olbrycht—11115113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
M. Olbrycht10
LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
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