TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059486
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Kuzmicz
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119911113––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 76 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 63.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 12–4 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1794 vs Olbrycht 1648
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 60% vs Olbrycht 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 60% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz +1 · Olbrycht +3
Olbrycht
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 1.36 / Olbrycht 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13059486
Kuzmicz1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 414 of 683
Up 2–0, closes it98% 168 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it81% 285 of 354
Olbrycht3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmicz8wins
AwayOlbrycht2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz100%6 of 6
AwayOlbrycht50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz6Olbrycht4n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Kuzmicz8Olbrycht2n = 10Kuzmicz took 8 of 10
S3Kuzmicz8Olbrycht2n = 10Kuzmicz took 8 of 10
S4Kuzmicz5Olbrycht1n = 6Kuzmicz took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmiczOlbrychtK − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.431.1+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime643 / 1121 vs 358 / 76357.4%46.9%643 / 1121 vs 358 / 763Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKuzmicz 1.36/Olbrycht 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 16:55J. Kuzmicz—11119113M. Olbrycht—751141
WAug 8 · 01:10J. Kuzmicz—151111183M. Olbrycht—1765161
WAug 7 · 20:30J. Kuzmicz—1311113M. Olbrycht—11550
LJul 28 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz—811771M. Olbrycht—11411113
WJul 18 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz—1111113M. Olbrycht—7760
WJul 17 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz—1114113M. Olbrycht—91250
WJul 7 · 23:15J. Kuzmicz—1111113M. Olbrycht—7980
WJul 7 · 21:00J. Kuzmicz—121111113M. Olbrycht—146961
LJul 7 · 24:45J. Kuzmicz—98111152M. Olbrycht—111149113
WJul 6 · 22:30J. Kuzmicz—11511113M. Olbrycht—911471
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
Upcoming Matches
J. Kuzmicz1 of 1 neutral
M. Olbrycht
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