TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053409
Played Sep 1Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611811––––
Lukasz Jarocki
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Lukasz Jarocki below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-10
Point 53 set 3, 8-10 — our read held Adrian Spychala at 54.0%
53 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Adrian Spychala 49–53 Lukasz Jarocki Adrian Spychala has won 49 of their 102 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:39What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-53 in 102
Jarocki
Correct
gap of 4 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1726 vs Jarocki 1703
Spychala
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 40% vs Jarocki 60%
Jarocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 50% vs Jarocki 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala -1 · Jarocki -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 2.20 / Jarocki 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Jarocki)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13053409
Spychala2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 132 of 441
Down 0–1, comes back13% 37 of 285
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 164
Jarocki1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 92 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpychala5wins
AwayJarocki5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala83.3%5 of 6
AwayJarocki100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala6Jarocki4n = 10Spychala took 6 of 10
S2Spychala5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S3Spychala5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Spychala6Jarocki3n = 9Spychala took 6 of 9
S5Spychala1Jarocki3n = 4Jarocki took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpychalaJarockiS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.240.3−1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime578 / 1550 vs 846 / 151237.3%56%578 / 1550 vs 846 / 1512Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiSpychala 2.20/Jarocki 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 10:05A. Spychala—1111113L. Jarocki—8950
LJul 28 · 15:25A. Spychala—771141L. Jarocki—11119113
WJul 28 · 13:00A. Spychala—115711113L. Jarocki—61111682
WJul 27 · 18:50A. Spychala—12611113L. Jarocki—1011891
LJul 27 · 11:45A. Spychala—911101172L. Jarocki—117127113
LMay 28 · 06:10A. Spychala—812491L. Jarocki—111011113
LMay 13 · 11:30A. Spychala—61121192L. Jarocki—117117113
WMay 13 · 04:15A. Spychala—11811123L. Jarocki—6119101
WMay 8 · 11:30A. Spychala—11811113L. Jarocki—811871
LMay 8 · 04:15A. Spychala—13114772L. Jarocki—1171111113
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131
L. Jarocki10
WSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113LSep 1 · 18:05L. Jarocki1.7361370M. Olbrycht2.001115113WSep 1 · 16:30L. Jarocki1.83881111113M. Sklensky1.8311115492LSep 1 · 15:45K. Glazowski1.73118167113L. Jarocki2.00911141162WSep 1 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.911115118113D. Prokopcov1.8061761162WSep 1 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.551211113K. Wisniewski2.3010770LSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113LSep 1 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.808950A. Spychala1.851111113WSep 1 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.7071111113D. Kosmal2.00118961LAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky1.83114415133L. Jarocki1.8311121113112
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