TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13051708
Played Aug 31Finished
Miroslav Sklensky
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111141241115131311
Lukasz Jarocki
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:46 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Sklensky above · Lukasz Jarocki below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 105 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Lukasz Jarocki at 58.4%
105 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Sklensky 45–40 Lukasz Jarocki Lukasz Jarocki has won 40 of their 85 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:46What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jarocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-40 in 85
Sklensky
Correct
gap of 5 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sklensky 1756 vs Jarocki 1708
Sklensky
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sklensky 100% vs Jarocki 60%
Sklensky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sklensky 60% vs Jarocki 40%
Sklensky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sklensky +5 · Jarocki +2
Sklensky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sklensky) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sklensky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSklensky 1.83 / Jarocki 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sklensky)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13051708
Sklensky1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jarocki1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSklensky5wins
AwayJarocki5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSklensky80%4 of 5
AwayJarocki80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sklensky5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Sklensky7Jarocki3n = 10Sklensky took 7 of 10
S3Sklensky4Jarocki6n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S4Sklensky5Jarocki4n = 9Sklensky took 5 of 9
S5Sklensky1Jarocki2n = 3Jarocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSklenskyJarockiS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.8+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSklenskyJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime685 / 1151 vs 842 / 150459.5%56%685 / 1151 vs 842 / 1504Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SklenskySklensky 1.83/Jarocki 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sklensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sklensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 09:45M. Sklensky—111011123L. Jarocki—4125101
LAug 11 · 17:20M. Sklensky—6111312112L. Jarocki—1161510133
LAug 11 · 11:45M. Sklensky—7136101L. Jarocki—111111123
WAug 10 · 18:50M. Sklensky—1111113L. Jarocki—7550
WAug 10 · 10:55M. Sklensky—121110113L. Jarocki—1071281
WJul 28 · 19:40M. Sklensky—6111315113L. Jarocki—119151392
LJul 28 · 14:35M. Sklensky—1161171L. Jarocki—13119113
LJul 27 · 16:05M. Sklensky—11715882L. Jarocki—7111311113
WJul 27 · 12:35M. Sklensky—111110113L. Jarocki—781241
LJul 13 · 17:40M. Sklensky—611761L. Jarocki—11511113
M. Sklensky10
WSep 7 · 08:30M. Sklensky1.3711118113K. Wisniewski2.80761171WSep 7 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.471112133A. Sobel2.45610110WSep 7 · 05:35M. Sklensky1.471111113M. Minda2.459480WSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351WSep 7 · 03:00M. Sklensky—1111613113D. Solilo—46111572WSep 1 · 20:05K. Glazowski2.20118881M. Sklensky1.6121111113WSep 1 · 19:15M. Olbrycht3.259570M. Sklensky1.331111113LSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470LSep 1 · 16:30L. Jarocki1.83881111113M. Sklensky1.8311115492LSep 1 · 15:00A. Spychala2.2571111113M. Sklensky1.57117951
L. Jarocki10
WSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113WSep 1 · 18:50A. Spychala2.207680L. Jarocki1.611111113LSep 1 · 18:05L. Jarocki1.7361370M. Olbrycht2.001115113WSep 1 · 16:30L. Jarocki1.83881111113M. Sklensky1.8311115492LSep 1 · 15:45K. Glazowski1.73118167113L. Jarocki2.00911141162WSep 1 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.911115118113D. Prokopcov1.8061761162WSep 1 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.551211113K. Wisniewski2.3010770LSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113LSep 1 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.808950A. Spychala1.851111113WSep 1 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.7071111113D. Kosmal2.00118961
Upcoming Matches
M. Sklensky1 of 4 neutral
L. Jarocki
Nothing scheduled
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