TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053339
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukasz Jarocki
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811811115114119
Miroslav Sklensky
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Jarocki above · Miroslav Sklensky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Jarocki at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 40–45 Miroslav Sklensky Lukasz Jarocki has won 40 of their 85 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sklensky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-45 in 85
Sklensky
Wrong
gap of 5 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1708 vs Sklensky 1736
Sklensky
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 40% vs Sklensky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 50% vs Sklensky 70%
Sklensky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki -1 · Sklensky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sklensky) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sklensky form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 1.83 / Sklensky 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sklensky)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13053339
Jarocki1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sklensky1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJarocki5wins
AwaySklensky5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarocki80%4 of 5
AwaySklensky80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki5Sklensky5n = 10split evenly
S2Jarocki3Sklensky7n = 10Sklensky took 7 of 10
S3Jarocki6Sklensky4n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S4Jarocki4Sklensky5n = 9Sklensky took 5 of 9
S5Jarocki2Sklensky1n = 3Jarocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarockiSklenskyJ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.842.3−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiSklenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime845 / 1510 vs 682 / 114756%59.5%845 / 1510 vs 682 / 1147Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SklenskyJarocki 1.83/Sklensky 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sklensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 09:45L. Jarocki—4125101M. Sklensky—111011123
WAug 11 · 17:20L. Jarocki—1161510133M. Sklensky—6111312112
WAug 11 · 11:45L. Jarocki—111111123M. Sklensky—7136101
LAug 10 · 18:50L. Jarocki—7550M. Sklensky—1111113
LAug 10 · 10:55L. Jarocki—1071281M. Sklensky—121110113
LJul 28 · 19:40L. Jarocki—119151392M. Sklensky—6111315113
WJul 28 · 14:35L. Jarocki—13119113M. Sklensky—1161171
WJul 27 · 16:05L. Jarocki—7111311113M. Sklensky—11715882
LJul 27 · 12:35L. Jarocki—781241M. Sklensky—111110113
WJul 13 · 17:40L. Jarocki—11511113M. Sklensky—611761
L. Jarocki10
WSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113WSep 1 · 18:50A. Spychala2.207680L. Jarocki1.611111113LSep 1 · 18:05L. Jarocki1.7361370M. Olbrycht2.001115113LSep 1 · 15:45K. Glazowski1.73118167113L. Jarocki2.00911141162WSep 1 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.911115118113D. Prokopcov1.8061761162WSep 1 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.551211113K. Wisniewski2.3010770LSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113LSep 1 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.808950A. Spychala1.851111113WSep 1 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.7071111113D. Kosmal2.00118961LAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky1.83114415133L. Jarocki1.8311121113112
M. Sklensky10
WSep 7 · 08:30M. Sklensky1.3711118113K. Wisniewski2.80761171WSep 7 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.471112133A. Sobel2.45610110WSep 7 · 05:35M. Sklensky1.471111113M. Minda2.459480WSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351WSep 7 · 03:00M. Sklensky—1111613113D. Solilo—46111572WSep 1 · 20:05K. Glazowski2.20118881M. Sklensky1.6121111113WSep 1 · 19:15M. Olbrycht3.259570M. Sklensky1.331111113LSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470WSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113WAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky1.83114415133L. Jarocki1.8311121113112
Upcoming Matches
L. Jarocki
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M. Sklensky1 of 4 neutral
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