TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058001
Played Sep 2Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111171412511118
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Spychala 2–6 Jakub Chmielowski Adrian Spychala has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:42What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Chmielowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1702 vs Chmielowski 1534
Spychala
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 60% vs Chmielowski 20%
Spychala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 50% vs Chmielowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala +1 · Chmielowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spychala) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 1.91 / Chmielowski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spychala)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13058001
Spychala1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 135 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back13% 38 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 165
Chmielowski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 114 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it89% 50 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it72% 91 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSpychala2wins
AwayChmielowski6wins
3 of 8 to a deciderChmielowski leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala50%2 of 4
AwayChmielowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala4Chmielowski4n = 8split evenly
S2Spychala4Chmielowski4n = 8split evenly
S3Spychala3Chmielowski5n = 8Chmielowski took 5 of 8
S4Spychala1Chmielowski5n = 6Chmielowski took 5 of 6
S5Spychala1Chmielowski2n = 3Chmielowski took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSpychalaChmielowskiS − CBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.439.5−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime579 / 1548 vs 343 / 70537.4%48.7%579 / 1548 vs 343 / 705Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaSpychala 1.91/Chmielowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Spychala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 27 · 07:20A. Spychala—11811572J. Chmielowski—811711113
WJun 12 · 03:55A. Spychala—1111113J. Chmielowski—6780
LMar 27 · 15:05A. Spychala—1111791J. Chmielowski—13211113
LSep 2 · 04:15A. Spychala—811951J. Chmielowski—11911113
LSep 1 · 14:25A. Spychala—75100J. Chmielowski—1111123
LJul 17 · 14:45A. Spychala—115116132J. Chmielowski—411611153
WJul 17 · 07:55A. Spychala—119911123J. Chmielowski—711115102
LJul 15 · 14:25A. Spychala—712591J. Chmielowski—111011113
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala2.00971261M. Olbrycht1.73111110113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113
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