TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058213
Played Sep 1Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9117111210611––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:55 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adrian Spychala at 54.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Spychala 12–10 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Spychala
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1686 vs Olbrycht 1657
Spychala
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 40% vs Olbrycht 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 50% vs Olbrycht 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala -2 · Olbrycht -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 2.00 / Olbrycht 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Olbrycht)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13058213
Spychala2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 132 of 441
Down 0–1, comes back13% 37 of 285
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 164
Olbrycht1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 91 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpychala4wins
AwayOlbrycht6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala33.3%1 of 3
AwayOlbrycht57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala3Olbrycht7n = 10Olbrycht took 7 of 10
S2Spychala6Olbrycht4n = 10Spychala took 6 of 10
S3Spychala5Olbrycht5n = 10split evenly
S4Spychala3Olbrycht5n = 8Olbrycht took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpychalaOlbrychtS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.3−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime578 / 1552 vs 356 / 75937.2%46.9%578 / 1552 vs 356 / 759Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtSpychala 2.00/Olbrycht 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala—971261M. Olbrycht—111110113
WAug 18 · 18:05A. Spychala—81111113M. Olbrycht—119971
WJul 28 · 20:30A. Spychala—101112113M. Olbrycht—1251051
LJul 27 · 18:05A. Spychala—571281M. Olbrycht—111110113
LJul 24 · 11:20A. Spychala—11133962M. Olbrycht—8111111113
LJul 23 · 14:15A. Spychala—13960M. Olbrycht—1511113
LMay 8 · 13:35A. Spychala—12105121M. Olbrycht—101211143
WApr 22 · 14:00A. Spychala—711711113M. Olbrycht—11511792
LApr 22 · 08:45A. Spychala—811841M. Olbrycht—11711113
WApr 21 · 11:05A. Spychala—1111113M. Olbrycht—7850
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113
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