TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059408
Played Sep 2Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711711811––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Adrian Spychala at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Spychala 20–15 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 15 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-15 in 35
Spychala
Wrong
gap of 5 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1711 vs Kapik 1684
Spychala
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 80% vs Kapik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 50% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala +3 · Kapik +2
Spychala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spychala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 1.83 / Kapik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spychala)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13059408
Spychala1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Kapik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpychala4wins
AwayKapik6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala100%3 of 3
AwayKapik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Spychala4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Spychala5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Spychala1Kapik3n = 4Kapik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpychalaKapikS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.435.0−2.6per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime580 / 1549 vs 1128 / 212537.4%53.1%580 / 1549 vs 1128 / 2125Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaSpychala 1.83/Kapik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 09:45A. Spychala—4990K. Kapik—1111113
WJul 27 · 15:45A. Spychala—1111113K. Kapik—9750
LJul 27 · 14:35A. Spychala—7711121K. Kapik—11117143
LJul 23 · 13:25A. Spychala—711761K. Kapik—11511113
WDec 10 · 10:30A. Spychala—111014113K. Kapik—5121271
LDec 10 · 08:10A. Spychala—9460K. Kapik—1111113
LOct 17 · 09:55A. Spychala—89100K. Kapik—1111123
WOct 8 · 20:10A. Spychala—811166113K. Kapik—115141172
LSep 25 · 19:00A. Spychala—7760K. Kapik—1111113
WSep 18 · 17:50A. Spychala—1311133K. Kapik—119110
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala2.00971261M. Olbrycht1.73111110113
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182
Upcoming Matches
A. Spychala
Nothing scheduled
K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——
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