TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059406
Played Sep 2Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117119––––
Jakub Witkowski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Jakub Witkowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 60 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Adrian Spychala at 61.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Spychala 8–4 Jakub Witkowski Jakub Witkowski has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Spychala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Spychala
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1696 vs Witkowski 1515
Spychala
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 80% vs Witkowski 0%
Spychala
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 60% vs Witkowski 10%
Spychala
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala +1 · Witkowski -5
Witkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spychala) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 1.80 / Witkowski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spychala)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13059406
Spychala1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Witkowski1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 75 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpychala7wins
AwayWitkowski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSpychala leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala100%3 of 3
AwayWitkowski42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala3Witkowski7n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S2Spychala8Witkowski2n = 10Spychala took 8 of 10
S3Spychala6Witkowski4n = 10Spychala took 6 of 10
S4Spychala8Witkowski2n = 10Spychala took 8 of 10
S5Spychala1Witkowski2n = 3Witkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpychalaWitkowskiS − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.9+4.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1551 vs 391 / 83737.5%46.7%581 / 1551 vs 391 / 837Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaSpychala 1.80/Witkowski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Spychala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala—11118113J. Witkowski—771171
WFeb 26 · 10:30A. Spychala—11912113J. Witkowski—8111061
WJan 12 · 12:05A. Spychala—91111113J. Witkowski—112571
WNov 20 · 10:55A. Spychala—11111011113J. Witkowski—13512642
WOct 17 · 11:55A. Spychala—15139113J. Witkowski—13111151
WOct 9 · 12:20A. Spychala—81111123J. Witkowski—1179101
LSep 29 · 11:05A. Spychala—91112782J. Witkowski—1181011113
LSep 4 · 14:00A. Spychala—61181182J. Witkowski—117119113
WSep 1 · 12:45A. Spychala—41111113J. Witkowski—117491
LAug 22 · 12:45A. Spychala—831181J. Witkowski—11117103
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala2.00971261M. Olbrycht1.73111110113
J. Witkowski10
LSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 18:30J. Braun1.2011814111J. Witkowski4.33131112133LSep 3 · 17:40P. Klos1.131111113J. Witkowski5.504670WSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:45J. Witkowski2.639813121A. Daniel1.44111111143LSep 3 · 14:40M. Kolek1.91111799113J. Witkowski1.80815111182LSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143WSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123WSep 3 · 11:00A. Lilien2.2014116462J. Witkowski1.601291111113LSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171
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