TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13057820
Played Sep 1Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116611118––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:46 and never touched — 68.2% is still 68.2%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
68.2%
68.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Karol Strowski at 68.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 34–5 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 5 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:46What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Strowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-5 in 39
Strowski
Correct
gap of 29 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1839 vs Olbrycht 1662
Strowski
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Olbrycht 40%
Strowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski +2 · Olbrycht +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.28 / Olbrycht 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Strowski)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13057820
Strowski1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 281 of 421
Up 2–0, closes it96% 102 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it84% 189 of 225
Olbrycht3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 94 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski8wins
AwayOlbrycht2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStrowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski100%8 of 8
AwayOlbrychtn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski8Olbrycht2n = 10Strowski took 8 of 10
S2Strowski9Olbrycht1n = 10Strowski took 9 of 10
S3Strowski6Olbrycht4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S4Strowski2Olbrycht2n = 4split evenly
S5Strowski2Olbrycht1n = 3Strowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiOlbrychtS − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.131.5+5.6per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1414 vs 354 / 75458.9%47%833 / 1414 vs 354 / 754Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.28/Olbrycht 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 7 · 16:05K. Strowski—1116123M. Olbrycht—814100
WJul 6 · 15:25K. Strowski—1211113M. Olbrycht—10790
WJun 30 · 15:25K. Strowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—7590
WMay 21 · 11:30K. Strowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—7850
WMay 19 · 09:05K. Strowski—111157113M. Olbrycht—87111172
WMay 7 · 16:20K. Strowski—1181411113M. Olbrycht—81116752
WApr 28 · 16:20K. Strowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—6870
LApr 21 · 14:45K. Strowski—611851M. Olbrycht—11511113
WApr 14 · 17:25K. Strowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—8870
LApr 13 · 17:25K. Strowski—51141152M. Olbrycht—119111113
K. Strowski10
WSep 7 · 10:05K. Strowski1.43119116123M. Sklensky2.60911511102LSep 7 · 09:00K. Strowski2.5091312101K. Wloczko1.44111510123LSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski2.00781181K. Glazowski1.7311117113WSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470LSep 1 · 16:05A. Spychala2.20111278113K. Strowski1.61910111162WSep 1 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.40117811102K. Strowski2.75811115123WSep 1 · 13:20K. Strowski1.91111311183K. Glazowski1.8013119161LSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142WSep 1 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.91911111172K. Strowski1.80111377113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113
Upcoming Matches
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