TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065075
Played Sep 3Finished
Petr David
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012117811611––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:21 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr David above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Petr David at 62.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 14–14 Dawid Michna Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1984 vs Michna 1989
Michna
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Michna 40%
David
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 70% vs Michna 50%
David
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +1 · Michna -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans David)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.50 / Michna 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (David)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065075
David1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 242 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it97% 126 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it83% 186 of 225
Michna2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 117 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back38% 43 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back15% 7 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid5wins
AwayMichna5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid60%3 of 5
AwayMichna60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2David6Michna4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3David7Michna3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4David2Michna8n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S5David4Michna4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidMichnaD − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.044.7+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime647 / 984 vs 534 / 97965.8%54.6%647 / 984 vs 534 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.50/Michna 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 08:30P. David—1011861D. Michna—12711113
LAug 27 · 11:40P. David—121211762D. Michna—1410511113
LAug 27 · 06:30P. David—111112482D. Michna—5131011113
LJun 12 · 11:10P. David—61281162D. Michna—1110119113
WJun 12 · 05:40P. David—813115113D. Michna—111121172
LFeb 3 · 08:40P. David—11811972D. Michna—511711113
WJan 4 · 15:05P. David—115118113D. Michna—91181172
WJan 4 · 06:50P. David—119139113D. Michna—911111192
WJan 3 · 12:10P. David—11119113D. Michna—661191
WJan 3 · 07:40P. David—211118113D. Michna—11251182
P. David10
LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113WSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121LSep 3 · 12:30P. David1.571081161A. Wiecek2.2512117113WSep 3 · 11:15P. David1.3011116113K. Kolodziej3.40871151WSep 3 · 10:00A. Dosz2.001110761P. David1.7391211113LSep 3 · 09:20P. David1.367117101S. Dosz3.0011411123WSep 3 · 06:55P. David1.9111812113M. Jadczyk1.808111051
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
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