Artur Grela vs Dawid Michna 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070621

Played Sep 4Finished

Artur Grela

Home

1.62

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1210611119611411

Dawid Michna

Away

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Artur Grela to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingArtur Grela above · Dawid Michna below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 4-11

Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 54.1%

91 points played in total.

H2H Artur Grela 27–27 Dawid Michna Dead even across their 54 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Head to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 09:38

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Grela

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

27-27 in 54

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Grela 1921 vs Michna 1995

Michna

Correct

both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Grela 60% vs Michna 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Grela 70% vs Michna 40%

Grela

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Grela -2 · Michna +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Michna form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsGrela 1.61 / Michna 2.20

Signal prob.58% / 42%

Edge (Grela)+0.4pp

TT Elite Series · #13070621

Grela1.61

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite66% won 160 of 243

Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58

Up 1–0, closes it76% 107 of 141

Michna2.20

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog53% won 119 of 225

Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 119

Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 49

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeGrela3wins

AwayMichna7wins

4 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeGrela25%1 of 4

AwayMichna66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Grela4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10

S2Grela4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10

S3Grela4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10

S4Grela4Michna4n = 8split evenly

S5Grela1Michna3n = 4Michna took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricGrelaMichnaG − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.541.9−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricGrelaMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime622 / 1235 vs 532 / 97850.4%54.4%622 / 1235 vs 532 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Grela

Grela 1.61/Michna 2.20

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.1%

Grela · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Michna won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela—8770D. Michna—1111113

WAug 27 · 12:30A. Grela—91111153D. Michna—1189131

LAug 27 · 04:10A. Grela—7860D. Michna—1111113

LAug 26 · 09:00A. Grela—811771D. Michna—11911113

LAug 26 · 08:05A. Grela—111051362D. Michna—9121111113

WAug 15 · 12:30A. Grela—117711113D. Michna—61111662

LAug 15 · 08:30A. Grela—14711192D. Michna—1211811113

LAug 14 · 15:45A. Grela—8113101D. Michna—11711123

WAug 14 · 06:30A. Grela—71111113D. Michna—115981

LJul 15 · 12:30A. Grela—11311572D. Michna—911711113

A. Grela10

LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113 LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113 WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732 WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113 WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071 LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113 LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113 WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101 WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151 WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101

D. Michna10

LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113 LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191 WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480 LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113 WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113 WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771 LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102 WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113 LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491 LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121

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