TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070634
Played Sep 4Finished
Artur Grela
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116611119611
Adam Dosz
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Adam Dosz at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 5–7 Adam Dosz Artur Grela has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Dosz
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1978 vs Dosz 1942
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 80% vs Dosz 40%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 80% vs Dosz 60%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +3 · Dosz -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.63 / Dosz 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Dosz)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070634
Grela2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 137 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back30% 47 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Dosz1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 74 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayDosz6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela60%3 of 5
AwayDosz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Dosz5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela4Dosz6n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S3Grela5Dosz5n = 10split evenly
S4Grela2Dosz5n = 7Dosz took 5 of 7
S5Grela3Dosz3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaDoszG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.043.0−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime622 / 1232 vs 172 / 29750.5%57.9%622 / 1232 vs 172 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszGrela 2.63/Dosz 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela—811115113A. Dosz—11981192
WMay 4 · 11:10A. Grela—1181110113A. Dosz—61171272
LMay 4 · 06:40A. Grela—11591182A. Dosz—511119113
LFeb 20 · 13:00A. Grela—61116962A. Dosz—1131411113
LFeb 20 · 07:15A. Grela—5111751A. Dosz—11419113
LFeb 19 · 11:00A. Grela—11680A. Dosz—1311113
WFeb 19 · 09:50A. Grela—183149113A. Dosz—1611121182
LOct 20 · 11:10A. Grela—96130A. Dosz—1111153
WOct 20 · 06:40A. Grela—1211143A. Dosz—106120
LJan 11 · 06:05A. Grela—11891192A. Dosz—211114113
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101
A. Dosz10
WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111LSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela2.00811115113A. Dosz1.7311981192LSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.83811871A. Dosz1.8311811113WSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113WSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
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