TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12410945
Played Aug 13Finished
Jakub Folwarski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121151210118––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Folwarski above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 64.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Folwarski 15–15 Grzegorz Felkel Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Folwarski 2169 vs Felkel 1926
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 243 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Folwarski 80% vs Felkel 40%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Folwarski 90% vs Felkel 50%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Folwarski +3 · Felkel -2
Folwarski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Folwarski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFolwarski 1.61 / Felkel 2.20
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Folwarski)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12410945
Folwarski1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 162 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Felkel2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 50 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFolwarski5wins
AwayFelkel5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFolwarski100%4 of 4
AwayFelkel83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Folwarski4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S2Folwarski6Felkel4n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Folwarski2Felkel8n = 10Felkel took 8 of 10
S4Folwarski4Felkel0n = 4Folwarski took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFolwarskiFelkelFolwarski − FelkelBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.233.5−1.3per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFolwarskiFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 394 vs 746 / 122874.6%60.8%294 / 394 vs 746 / 1228Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiFolwarski 1.61/Felkel 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 09:20J. Folwarski—12118113G. Felkel—1061181
WJul 23 · 06:55J. Folwarski—211611123G. Felkel—116119102
WJul 11 · 09:20J. Folwarski—1112113G. Felkel—71070
LJul 11 · 04:10J. Folwarski—711111192G. Felkel—117136113
WMay 20 · 14:30J. Folwarski—11115113G. Felkel—291171
LMay 20 · 06:15J. Folwarski—51180G. Felkel—1113113
WApr 3 · 12:25J. Folwarski—1111113G. Felkel—5560
LApr 3 · 03:00J. Folwarski—10340G. Felkel—1211113
LNov 22 · 11:45J. Folwarski—10980G. Felkel—1211113
LNov 22 · 09:25J. Folwarski—3670G. Felkel—1111113
J. Folwarski10
WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113WAug 13 · 09:20J. Folwarski1.301111113J. Braun3.405540WAug 13 · 08:40J. Folwarski1.141211113A. Daniel5.0010730WAug 13 · 07:15J. Folwarski1.441014119123M. Jadczyk2.631212711102LAug 13 · 06:10J. Folwarski1.449181131A. Abbasi2.6311205113WAug 13 · 04:05J. Folwarski1.221211113M. Domin4.0010560
G. Felkel10
LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251WAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela2.009780G. Felkel1.731111113WAug 27 · 06:05G. Felkel1.671111711113S. Kolasa2.1095111382WAug 27 · 04:30G. Felkel1.251111113M. Domin3.752680LAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791
Upcoming Matches
J. Folwarski
Sep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.57J. Kosowski2.25—Sep 7 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.61P. David2.20—Sep 7 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.33S. Kolasa3.25—Sep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.30M. Olejnik3.40—Sep 8 · 04:10J. Folwarski1.57J. Kosowski2.25—Sep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61P. David2.20—Sep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski—A. Wiecek——Sep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski—T. Spanik——
G. Felkel
Nothing scheduled
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