TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13020376
Played Aug 27Finished
Petr David
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111191195111113
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr David above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 98 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Petr David at 60.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 53–25 Grzegorz Felkel Grzegorz Felkel has won 25 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-25 in 78
David
Wrong
gap of 28 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1868 vs Felkel 1969
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 40% vs Felkel 80%
Felkel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 40% vs Felkel 70%
Felkel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +1 · Felkel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.50 / Felkel 2.50
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (David)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13020376
David1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 237 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it97% 129 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it83% 185 of 224
Felkel2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 44 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid7wins
AwayFelkel3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid100%4 of 4
AwayFelkel50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S2David6Felkel4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3David8Felkel2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S4David5Felkel1n = 6David took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidFelkelD − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.231.2+6.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 979 vs 732 / 121965.5%60.1%641 / 979 vs 732 / 1219Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.50/Felkel 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.5%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 03:45P. David—91111692G. Felkel—116711113
WJun 28 · 10:25P. David—1111113G. Felkel—8590
WJun 28 · 07:20P. David—91211113G. Felkel—1110571
LMay 20 · 12:25P. David—8980G. Felkel—1111113
WMay 20 · 04:00P. David—111113113G. Felkel—7131161
LMay 19 · 15:10P. David—5870G. Felkel—1111113
WMay 19 · 08:25P. David—11811113G. Felkel—811561
WMay 13 · 10:00P. David—81111113G. Felkel—116361
WMay 13 · 09:10P. David—1111113G. Felkel—3780
WMay 5 · 12:25P. David—111111113G. Felkel—138761
P. David10
LSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113WSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113WSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121LSep 3 · 12:30P. David1.571081161A. Wiecek2.2512117113WSep 3 · 11:15P. David1.3011116113K. Kolodziej3.40871151WSep 3 · 10:00A. Dosz2.001110761P. David1.7391211113
G. Felkel10
LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251WAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela2.009780G. Felkel1.731111113WAug 27 · 06:05G. Felkel1.671111711113S. Kolasa2.1095111382WAug 27 · 04:30G. Felkel1.251111113M. Domin3.752680WAug 27 · 03:45P. David1.5391111692G. Felkel2.38116711113WAug 26 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57911114113D. Michna2.2511681182
Upcoming Matches
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