TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13013152
Played Aug 26Finished
Grzegorz Felkel
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116118411118
Dawid Michna
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:36 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 55.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 26–26 Dawid Michna Dead even across their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:36What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-26 in 52
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1917 vs Michna 1959
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 60% vs Michna 80%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 50% vs Michna 80%
Michna
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel +1 · Michna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.57 / Michna 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Felkel)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13013152
Felkel1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 229 of 371
Up 2–0, closes it93% 130 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it79% 170 of 215
Michna2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog52% won 115 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back35% 42 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel3wins
AwayMichna7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkeln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMichna87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel2Michna8n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S2Felkel3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S3Felkel5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S4Felkel4Michna3n = 7Felkel took 4 of 7
S5Felkel2Michna3n = 5Michna took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelMichnaF − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.043.3−5.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime731 / 1219 vs 544 / 99860%54.5%731 / 1219 vs 544 / 998Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.57/Michna 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 07:20G. Felkel—91111772D. Michna—118811113
LAug 14 · 10:00G. Felkel—9680D. Michna—1111113
LAug 14 · 08:05G. Felkel—311121192D. Michna—119149113
LJul 28 · 10:25G. Felkel—8960D. Michna—1111113
LJul 28 · 07:20G. Felkel—101150D. Michna—1213113
WJul 12 · 09:00G. Felkel—8111211113D. Michna—11914892
LJul 12 · 08:05G. Felkel—59121192D. Michna—1111109113
WJun 17 · 10:50G. Felkel—11712113D. Michna—9111071
LJun 17 · 04:30G. Felkel—791321D. Michna—111111113
WMay 10 · 12:50G. Felkel—118115113D. Michna—81181162
G. Felkel10
LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251WAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela2.009780G. Felkel1.731111113WAug 27 · 06:05G. Felkel1.671111711113S. Kolasa2.1095111382WAug 27 · 04:30G. Felkel1.251111113M. Domin3.752680WAug 27 · 03:45P. David1.5391111692G. Felkel2.38116711113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.