TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13020314
Played Aug 27Finished
Grzegorz Felkel
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112116118––––
Maciej Domin
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Maciej Domin below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 49 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 81.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 5–3 Maciej Domin Maciej Domin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Felkel
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1930 vs Domin 1830
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 80% vs Domin 60%
Felkel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 70% vs Domin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel +3 · Domin +1
Felkel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Domin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.25 / Domin 3.75
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Felkel)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13020314
Felkel1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 229 of 371
Up 2–0, closes it93% 130 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it79% 170 of 215
Domin3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 70 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFelkel5wins
AwayDomin3wins
1 of 8 to a deciderFelkel leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel83.3%5 of 6
AwayDominn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel6Domin2n = 8Felkel took 6 of 8
S2Felkel7Domin1n = 8Felkel took 7 of 8
S3Felkel4Domin4n = 8split evenly
S4Felkel1Domin2n = 3Domin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricFelkelDominF − DBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match35.529.1+6.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelDominBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1218 vs 511 / 97159.9%52.6%730 / 1218 vs 511 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.25/Domin 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 20 · 11:20G. Felkel—11116782M. Domin—781111113
LAug 20 · 07:20G. Felkel—11990M. Domin—1311113
WAug 13 · 05:50G. Felkel—11147113M. Domin—5121141
WJul 19 · 12:05G. Felkel—1111113M. Domin—8980
WJul 19 · 06:05G. Felkel—1111113M. Domin—6370
WJul 18 · 12:30G. Felkel—1111113M. Domin—3780
WMay 10 · 17:05G. Felkel—1111113M. Domin—4870
LJan 1 · 05:15G. Felkel—811991M. Domin—11711113
G. Felkel10
LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251WAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela2.009780G. Felkel1.731111113WAug 27 · 06:05G. Felkel1.671111711113S. Kolasa2.1095111382WAug 27 · 03:45P. David1.5391111692G. Felkel2.38116711113WAug 26 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57911114113D. Michna2.2511681182
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.