TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13020381
Played Aug 27Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911114118119––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 58.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 27–27 Grzegorz Felkel Dead even across their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:54What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-27 in 54
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1995 vs Felkel 1950
Michna
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs Felkel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs Felkel 80%
Felkel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Felkel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.20 / Felkel 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Felkel)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13020381
Michna2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 121 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back36% 43 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 53
Felkel1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 233 of 376
Up 2–0, closes it93% 131 of 141
Up 1–0, closes it79% 171 of 216
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna7wins
AwayFelkel3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna75%6 of 8
AwayFelkeln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna8Felkel2n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S2Michna6Felkel4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna6Felkel4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Michna3Felkel4n = 7Felkel took 4 of 7
S5Michna3Felkel2n = 5Michna took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaFelkelM − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.6+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1008 vs 731 / 121954.6%60%550 / 1008 vs 731 / 1219Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelMichna 2.20/Felkel 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna—61111113G. Felkel—119251
LAug 26 · 14:10D. Michna—11681182G. Felkel—911114113
WAug 26 · 07:20D. Michna—118811113G. Felkel—91111772
WAug 14 · 10:00D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—9680
WAug 14 · 08:05D. Michna—119149113G. Felkel—311121192
WJul 28 · 10:25D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—8960
WJul 28 · 07:20D. Michna—1213113G. Felkel—101150
LJul 12 · 09:00D. Michna—11914892G. Felkel—8111211113
WJul 12 · 08:05D. Michna—1111109113G. Felkel—59121192
LJun 17 · 10:50D. Michna—9111071G. Felkel—11712113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491
G. Felkel10
WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251WAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela2.009780G. Felkel1.731111113WAug 27 · 06:05G. Felkel1.671111711113S. Kolasa2.1095111382WAug 27 · 04:30G. Felkel1.251111113M. Domin3.752680WAug 27 · 03:45P. David1.5391111692G. Felkel2.38116711113WAug 26 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57911114113D. Michna2.2511681182
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