TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092311
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Kosowski
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4114111141210811
Martin Olejnik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Martin Olejnik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 38–51 Martin Olejnik Jakub Kosowski has won 38 of their 89 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Olejnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-51 in 89
Olejnik
Correct
gap of 13 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1941 vs Olejnik 1805
Kosowski
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 40% vs Olejnik 0%
Kosowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 30% vs Olejnik 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski +1 · Olejnik -5
Olejnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Olejnik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olejnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 2.20 / Olejnik 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Olejnik)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13092311
Kosowski2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 42 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Olejnik1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 195 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it85% 145 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski5wins
AwayOlejnik5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski75%3 of 4
AwayOlejnik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S2Kosowski4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S3Kosowski5Olejnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kosowski3Olejnik4n = 7Olejnik took 4 of 7
S5Kosowski4Olejnik2n = 6Kosowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiOlejnikK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.5−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiOlejnikBasisWin rate · lifetime743 / 1263 vs 454 / 82958.8%54.8%743 / 1263 vs 454 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikKosowski 2.20/Olejnik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Olejnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 10:00J. Kosowski—1111113M. Olejnik—6680
WAug 18 · 06:55J. Kosowski—811411113M. Olejnik—11811652
LJul 21 · 09:20J. Kosowski—1161151M. Olejnik—51113113
LJul 21 · 06:55J. Kosowski—8660M. Olejnik—1111113
WJul 14 · 11:40J. Kosowski—115117113M. Olejnik—71191192
LJul 14 · 04:55J. Kosowski—101131152M. Olejnik—126116113
WJul 7 · 09:00J. Kosowski—1113119113M. Olejnik—131131162
WJul 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski—115116113M. Olejnik—71181172
LJul 3 · 11:15J. Kosowski—81070M. Olejnik—1112113
LJul 3 · 04:55J. Kosowski—441111102M. Olejnik—111175123
J. Kosowski10
WSep 8 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.361211113K. Wloczko3.0010980LSep 8 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.3311711142K. Kolodziej3.25911911113LSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111WSep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.101211143M. Olejnik1.67105120LSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113LSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113LSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120
M. Olejnik10
LSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121LSep 8 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.8346111192A. Wiecek1.83111186113LSep 8 · 10:25M. Olejnik1.50111111792K. Kolodziej2.50136811113LSep 8 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.3871112113M. Olejnik1.531141081LSep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.101211143M. Olejnik1.67105120LSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113
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