TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092294
Played Sep 8Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117119711811
Martin Olejnik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Martin Olejnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 5–8 Martin Olejnik Tibor Spanik has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:17What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Olejnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Olejnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1872 vs Olejnik 1849
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 80% vs Olejnik 20%
Spanik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 50% vs Olejnik 20%
Spanik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +3 · Olejnik +1
Spanik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Olejnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olejnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.91 / Olejnik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Olejnik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13092294
Spanik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 66 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Olejnik1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 195 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it85% 145 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik4wins
AwayOlejnik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOlejnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik50%2 of 4
AwayOlejnik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S2Spanik6Olejnik4n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S3Spanik5Olejnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Spanik3Olejnik4n = 7Olejnik took 4 of 7
S5Spanik1Olejnik3n = 4Olejnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikOlejnikS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.1+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikOlejnikBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 408 vs 454 / 82455.9%55.1%228 / 408 vs 454 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikSpanik 1.91/Olejnik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Olejnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik—81111782M. Olejnik—117911113
LAug 18 · 11:40T. Spanik—9460M. Olejnik—1111113
WAug 18 · 04:30T. Spanik—71111113M. Olejnik—114821
WAug 7 · 11:15T. Spanik—791111113M. Olejnik—11116582
LAug 7 · 05:40T. Spanik—118791M. Olejnik—91111113
LJun 2 · 11:35T. Spanik—713111262M. Olejnik—1111614113
LJun 2 · 04:20T. Spanik—9680M. Olejnik—1111113
WMay 5 · 04:20T. Spanik—11116113M. Olejnik—491191
WApr 24 · 15:35T. Spanik—1111123M. Olejnik—58100
LApr 24 · 07:00T. Spanik—11117642M. Olejnik—331111113
T. Spanik10
LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762
M. Olejnik10
LSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113LSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:40P. David1.7371111113M. Olejnik2.00113641WSep 2 · 10:50M. Olejnik1.4441113113K. Kolodziej2.631161161LSep 2 · 09:40M. Olejnik1.7310490M. Jadczyk2.001211113LSep 2 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.8311211113M. Olejnik1.83211671LSep 2 · 07:20M. Olejnik1.6781080K. Wloczko2.101112113
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