TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058835
Played Sep 2Finished
Piotr Cyrnek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112211116117––
Martin Olejnik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Martin Olejnik below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 61 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 19–14 Martin Olejnik Martin Olejnik has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Olejnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Cyrnek
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1907 vs Olejnik 1918
Olejnik
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 40% vs Olejnik 20%
Cyrnek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 50% vs Olejnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek -2 · Olejnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyrnek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olejnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.83 / Olejnik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cyrnek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13058835
Cyrnek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Olejnik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCyrnek5wins
AwayOlejnik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrnek75%3 of 4
AwayOlejnik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrnek4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S2Cyrnek3Olejnik7n = 10Olejnik took 7 of 10
S3Cyrnek7Olejnik3n = 10Cyrnek took 7 of 10
S4Cyrnek7Olejnik2n = 9Cyrnek took 7 of 9
S5Cyrnek2Olejnik3n = 5Olejnik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCyrnekOlejnikC − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.942.7−1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekOlejnikBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 430 vs 461 / 83056.7%55.5%244 / 430 vs 461 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.83/Olejnik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cyrnek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 12:55P. Cyrnek—1316113M. Olejnik—111460
WAug 11 · 04:55P. Cyrnek—651111123M. Olejnik—111195102
WAug 4 · 10:00P. Cyrnek—11411123M. Olejnik—9115101
LAug 4 · 05:40P. Cyrnek—7101291M. Olejnik—111210113
LJul 24 · 10:00P. Cyrnek—801171M. Olejnik—11112113
WJul 24 · 06:30P. Cyrnek—1511411113M. Olejnik—17711982
LJul 3 · 10:00P. Cyrnek—97111262M. Olejnik—1111710113
LJul 3 · 06:30P. Cyrnek—101151162M. Olejnik—128117113
WJun 15 · 10:25P. Cyrnek—13711113M. Olejnik—1111891
LJun 15 · 04:55P. Cyrnek—11541192M. Olejnik—811115113
P. Cyrnek10
LSep 2 · 13:45P. Cyrnek1.5711711772M. Jadczyk2.25611911113WSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:15P. Cyrnek1.50715118132K. Wloczko2.501113811153WSep 2 · 10:00P. David1.5011119972P. Cyrnek2.50861111113WSep 2 · 09:20P. Cyrnek1.4411511113K. Kolodziej2.63711781LSep 2 · 06:55P. Cyrnek1.5071111692M. Jadczyk2.50114611113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Cyrnek1.309880D. Prokopcov3.401111113WSep 2 · 04:10P. Cyrnek2.201116143P. David1.61914120WSep 2 · 03:00P. Cyrnek1.4411812113K. Wloczko2.639111061LSep 1 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.40117811102K. Strowski2.75811115123
M. Olejnik10
LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113LSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:40P. David1.7371111113M. Olejnik2.00113641WSep 2 · 10:50M. Olejnik1.4441113113K. Kolodziej2.631161161LSep 2 · 09:40M. Olejnik1.7310490M. Jadczyk2.001211113LSep 2 · 07:20M. Olejnik1.6781080K. Wloczko2.101112113LSep 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.80111110113M. Olejnik1.91571291WSep 2 · 04:55D. Prokopcov3.75121111192M. Olejnik1.25141184113LSep 2 · 03:25P. David1.61111111113M. Olejnik2.20713791LAug 28 · 15:45M. Olejnik1.91711111182A. Dosz1.80111351113
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