TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092310
Played Sep 8Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411611118116911
Adrian Wiecek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 56.2%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 63–35 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 35 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:27What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-35 in 98
Olejnik
Wrong
gap of 28 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1810 vs Wiecek 1851
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 20% vs Wiecek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 20% vs Wiecek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik -4 · Wiecek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Olejnik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 1.83 / Wiecek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Olejnik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13092310
Olejnik1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Wiecek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlejnik8wins
AwayWiecek2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOlejnik leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlejnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayWiecek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olejnik6Wiecek4n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S2Olejnik7Wiecek3n = 10Olejnik took 7 of 10
S3Olejnik9Wiecek1n = 10Olejnik took 9 of 10
S4Olejnik4Wiecek3n = 7Olejnik took 4 of 7
S5Olejnik2Wiecek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlejnikWiecekO − WBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.136.0+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 827 vs 776 / 140954.9%55.1%454 / 827 vs 776 / 1409Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikOlejnik 1.83/Wiecek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 04:55M. Olejnik—1111113A. Wiecek—9580
LAug 25 · 12:55M. Olejnik—11811462A. Wiecek—911611113
WAug 25 · 04:55M. Olejnik—1411113113A. Wiecek—16981172
WAug 18 · 09:00M. Olejnik—121111113A. Wiecek—147581
WAug 18 · 07:45M. Olejnik—1112113A. Wiecek—81080
WAug 11 · 10:25M. Olejnik—11611143A. Wiecek—7116121
WAug 11 · 07:20M. Olejnik—11125113A. Wiecek—3101161
LAug 4 · 12:55M. Olejnik—471111102A. Wiecek—111197123
WAug 4 · 04:55M. Olejnik—9111110113A. Wiecek—11871292
WJul 28 · 14:35M. Olejnik—1111113A. Wiecek—8620
M. Olejnik10
WSep 8 · 13:45J. Kosowski2.2044111282M. Olejnik1.611111410113LSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121LSep 8 · 10:25M. Olejnik1.50111111792K. Kolodziej2.50136811113LSep 8 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.3871112113M. Olejnik1.531141081LSep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.101211143M. Olejnik1.67105120LSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172LSep 8 · 10:50K. Wloczko2.7511117113A. Wiecek1.40981181LSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111LSep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.508121161P. David1.5011146113LSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.448111110123A. Wiecek2.63118912102WSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191
Upcoming Matches
M. Olejnik
Nothing scheduled
A. Wiecek
Sep 8 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 9 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.33K. Wloczko3.25—Sep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 9 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.33K. Kolodziej3.25—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.