TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092354
Played Sep 8Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141168111412––
Martin Olejnik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Martin Olejnik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 77 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 5–8 Martin Olejnik Tibor Spanik has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Olejnik beat Spanik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:27What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Olejnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Olejnik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1910 vs Olejnik 1801
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 80% vs Olejnik 0%
Spanik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 70% vs Olejnik 20%
Spanik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +3 · Olejnik -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olejnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.91 / Olejnik 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spanik)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13092354
Spanik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 66 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Olejnik1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 195 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it85% 145 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik4wins
AwayOlejnik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOlejnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik50%2 of 4
AwayOlejnik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S2Spanik6Olejnik4n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S3Spanik5Olejnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Spanik3Olejnik4n = 7Olejnik took 4 of 7
S5Spanik1Olejnik3n = 4Olejnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikOlejnikS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.1+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikOlejnikBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 412 vs 454 / 82856.1%54.8%231 / 412 vs 454 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.91/Olejnik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik—81111782M. Olejnik—117911113
LAug 18 · 11:40T. Spanik—9460M. Olejnik—1111113
WAug 18 · 04:30T. Spanik—71111113M. Olejnik—114821
WAug 7 · 11:15T. Spanik—791111113M. Olejnik—11116582
LAug 7 · 05:40T. Spanik—118791M. Olejnik—91111113
LJun 2 · 11:35T. Spanik—713111262M. Olejnik—1111614113
LJun 2 · 04:20T. Spanik—9680M. Olejnik—1111113
WMay 5 · 04:20T. Spanik—11116113M. Olejnik—491191
WApr 24 · 15:35T. Spanik—1111123M. Olejnik—58100
LApr 24 · 07:00T. Spanik—11117642M. Olejnik—331111113
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.8013116123K. Wloczko1.9111811101WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113
M. Olejnik10
WSep 8 · 13:45J. Kosowski2.2044111282M. Olejnik1.611111410113LSep 8 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.8346111192A. Wiecek1.83111186113LSep 8 · 10:25M. Olejnik1.50111111792K. Kolodziej2.50136811113LSep 8 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.3871112113M. Olejnik1.531141081LSep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.101211143M. Olejnik1.67105120LSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113
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