TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091327
Played Sep 8Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151311118––––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 5–2 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:37What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Spanik
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1882 vs Kolodziej 1860
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Kolodziej 20%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 50% vs Kolodziej 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik -1 · Kolodziej -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.61 / Kolodziej 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Spanik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13091327
Spanik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 148 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it76% 106 of 140
Kolodziej2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 73 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSpanik5wins
AwayKolodziej2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSpanik leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik100%4 of 4
AwayKolodziej66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Kolodziej3n = 7Spanik took 4 of 7
S2Spanik5Kolodziej2n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S3Spanik5Kolodziej2n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S4Spanik1Kolodziej2n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSpanikKolodziejS − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match36.931.4+5.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 410 vs 1311 / 194955.9%67.3%229 / 410 vs 1311 / 1949Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.61/Kolodziej 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik—1113113K. Kolodziej—51180
LAug 18 · 10:50T. Spanik—911861K. Kolodziej—11711113
WAug 17 · 10:50T. Spanik—1111113K. Kolodziej—5560
WAug 7 · 10:25T. Spanik—811139113K. Kolodziej—118111132
WAug 3 · 15:25T. Spanik—1411113K. Kolodziej—12450
LAug 3 · 11:45T. Spanik—410110K. Kolodziej—1112133
WAug 2 · 14:35T. Spanik—12711133K. Kolodziej—10117111
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942
K. Kolodziej10
WSep 8 · 10:25M. Olejnik1.50111111792K. Kolodziej2.50136811113LSep 7 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.734111110113K. Kolodziej2.0011251282WSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113LSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113LSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133
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