TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092319
Played Sep 8Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118115––––
Jakub Kosowski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 54.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 12–12 Jakub Kosowski Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Spanik beat Kosowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kosowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1882 vs Kosowski 1959
Kosowski
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Kosowski 40%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Kosowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +1 · Kosowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 2.20 / Kosowski 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kosowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092319
Spanik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 66 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Kosowski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 295 of 447
Up 2–0, closes it95% 138 of 146
Up 1–0, closes it85% 230 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik6wins
AwayKosowski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik100%3 of 3
AwayKosowski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik3Kosowski7n = 10Kosowski took 7 of 10
S2Spanik8Kosowski2n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S3Spanik6Kosowski4n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S4Spanik4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S5Spanik4Kosowski3n = 7Spanik took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikKosowskiS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.344.1−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 410 vs 745 / 126455.9%58.9%229 / 410 vs 745 / 1264Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiSpanik 2.20/Kosowski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik—11154113J. Kosowski—9131191
LAug 31 · 10:00T. Spanik—81211942J. Kosowski—1110711113
LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik—511661J. Kosowski—11511113
WAug 18 · 12:30T. Spanik—911119113J. Kosowski—11861192
WAug 18 · 03:00T. Spanik—8111110113J. Kosowski—11891252
WAug 6 · 11:40T. Spanik—111198113J. Kosowski—97111182
WAug 6 · 04:55T. Spanik—11117113J. Kosowski—611151
WAug 2 · 12:55T. Spanik—7101112113J. Kosowski—111281092
LAug 2 · 04:55T. Spanik—510111132J. Kosowski—111279113
LJul 20 · 09:20T. Spanik—81112512J. Kosowski—1191011113
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942
J. Kosowski10
WSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111WSep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.101211143M. Olejnik1.67105120LSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113LSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113LSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120WSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113WAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942
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