TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092344
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Kosowski
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101151412––––
Martin Olejnik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Martin Olejnik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 64 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 38–51 Martin Olejnik Jakub Kosowski has won 38 of their 89 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:29What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Olejnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-51 in 89
Olejnik
Wrong
gap of 13 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1937 vs Olejnik 1849
Kosowski
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 0% vs Olejnik 40%
Olejnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 50% vs Olejnik 30%
Kosowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski -5 · Olejnik -1
Kosowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Olejnik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olejnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 2.10 / Olejnik 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Olejnik)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13092344
Kosowski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 42 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Olejnik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 195 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it85% 145 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski5wins
AwayOlejnik5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski75%3 of 4
AwayOlejnik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S2Kosowski4Olejnik6n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S3Kosowski5Olejnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kosowski3Olejnik4n = 7Olejnik took 4 of 7
S5Kosowski4Olejnik2n = 6Kosowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiOlejnikK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.5−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiOlejnikBasisWin rate · lifetime744 / 1263 vs 454 / 82458.9%55.1%744 / 1263 vs 454 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikKosowski 2.10/Olejnik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 10:00J. Kosowski—1111113M. Olejnik—6680
WAug 18 · 06:55J. Kosowski—811411113M. Olejnik—11811652
LJul 21 · 09:20J. Kosowski—1161151M. Olejnik—51113113
LJul 21 · 06:55J. Kosowski—8660M. Olejnik—1111113
WJul 14 · 11:40J. Kosowski—115117113M. Olejnik—71191192
LJul 14 · 04:55J. Kosowski—101131152M. Olejnik—126116113
WJul 7 · 09:00J. Kosowski—1113119113M. Olejnik—131131162
WJul 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski—115116113M. Olejnik—71181172
LJul 3 · 11:15J. Kosowski—81070M. Olejnik—1112113
LJul 3 · 04:55J. Kosowski—441111102M. Olejnik—111175123
J. Kosowski10
LSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111LSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113LSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113LSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120WSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20S. Kolasa2.1011760J. Kosowski1.671311113
M. Olejnik10
LSep 8 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.3871112113M. Olejnik1.531141081LSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892LSep 2 · 14:10M. Olejnik1.535890K. Wloczko2.381111113LSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:40P. David1.7371111113M. Olejnik2.00113641WSep 2 · 10:50M. Olejnik1.4441113113K. Kolodziej2.631161161LSep 2 · 09:40M. Olejnik1.7310490M. Jadczyk2.001211113
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