TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089026
Played Sep 7Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116117––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 3–6 Pavel Plakushchyi Vitalii S Marushchak has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1691 vs Plakushchyi 1628
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 40% vs Plakushchyi 20%
Marushchak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 40% vs Plakushchyi 20%
Marushchak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak -3 · Plakushchyi -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plakushchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 2.00 / Plakushchyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13089026
Marushchak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Plakushchyi1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 46 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMarushchak3wins
AwayPlakushchyi6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak50%2 of 4
AwayPlakushchyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak4Plakushchyi5n = 9Plakushchyi took 5 of 9
S2Marushchak3Plakushchyi6n = 9Plakushchyi took 6 of 9
S3Marushchak4Plakushchyi5n = 9Plakushchyi took 5 of 9
S4Marushchak1Plakushchyi4n = 5Plakushchyi took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricMarushchakPlakushchyiM − PBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match36.137.3−1.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 634 vs 302 / 67947.5%44.5%301 / 634 vs 302 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiMarushchak 2.00/Plakushchyi 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 17:10V. Marushchak—5970P. Plakushchyi—1111113
LAug 28 · 13:10V. Marushchak—11122101P. Plakushchyi—131011123
WJul 31 · 15:10V. Marushchak—111111113P. Plakushchyi—413841
LJul 21 · 14:00V. Marushchak—116971P. Plakushchyi—91111113
WJul 15 · 12:50V. Marushchak—611118113P. Plakushchyi—11821162
LJul 14 · 19:00V. Marushchak—67100P. Plakushchyi—1111123
LJun 26 · 12:40V. Marushchak—119140P. Plakushchyi—1311163
LJun 8 · 14:10V. Marushchak—1112111652P. Plakushchyi—414918113
WJun 2 · 19:50V. Marushchak—1111113P. Plakushchyi—8370
V. Marushchak10
WSep 7 · 15:40V. Marushchak1.918111115113A. Yurkov1.80116131382LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 7 · 12:40A. Yurkov1.3391111143P. Plakushchyi3.251188121LSep 7 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi1.73114411113P. Plakushchyi2.0071111892LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123
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